Ethanol Market Update - 12/9/25

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Author

Nicholas Coolidge
December 09, 2025

In partnership with

December 12, 2025

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures held a tight, quiet range Tuesday with CU Dec settling at $1.6725, down slightly as the front end continued to consolidate after last week’s soft drift lower. The curve remains orderly, with Q1 sitting at $1.6125 and Q2 marked at $1.685, keeping the forward structure modestly backward but stable.

The broader tone continues to reflect balanced fundamentals—steady production, healthy export programs, and mild demand seasonality. No major shifts occurred across cash markets, though Argo and NYH followed futures lower with light post-EIA positioning and limited discretionary buying interest.

Production Overview

Liquidity Energy’s internal model keeps U.S. ethanol output steady in the 1.122–1.126 million b/d range. Utilization remains stable across the majority of surveyed plants with only minor day-to-day fluctuations seen in the Midwest. Rail logistics were smooth, and no meaningful weather-related disruptions were reported.

  • Production remains flat week-over-week

  • Co-product values (DDG, CO₂, corn oil) stable

  • Corn basis mixed but slightly softer in western markets

MMBTU output metrics remain consistent with last week’s pattern, showing no material deviation heading into mid-December.

Market Insight

The November contract rolled off the board last week, leaving December as the prompt. Spreads continue to behave in line with seasonal norms:

  • Dec/Jan: +7.75¢

  • Jan/Feb: −1.50¢

  • Feb/Mar: −2.50¢

The 1H average sits at $1.650, unchanged from Monday.

Argo physical offers continue to mirror the board with limited liquidity:

  • Argo Mar: $1.635

  • Argo Apr: $1.6025

  • Argo May: $1.6225

NYH remains well supported by barge demand and logistics through the holidays, keeping its premium to CU steady:

  • NYH/CU (Jan): +10.25¢

Futures & Cash Settlements – 12/2

Ethanol CU Contract

Month

Settle

Spread

Dec

1.6725

+0.0775

Jan

1.595

−0.015

Feb

1.610

−0.025

Mar

1.635

−0.030

Apr

1.665

−0.0225

May

1.6875

−0.015

Jun

1.7025

−0.005

Jul

1.7075

—

Q1: 1.6125 | Q2: 1.685 | 1H: 1.650 | Q1/Q2: −0.0725

Argo Market

Month

Settle

Spread

Mar

1.635

+0.0325

Apr

1.6025

−0.020

May

1.6225

−0.0275

Jun

1.650

−0.0275

Jul

1.6775

—

NYH Market

Month

Settle

Spread

NYH/CU

Jan

1.775

+0.070

+0.1025

Feb

1.705

−0.015

+0.1100

Mar

1.720

−0.025

+0.1100

Apr

1.745

−0.030

+0.1100

May

1.775

−0.0225

+0.1100

Jun

1.7975

−0.015

+0.1100

Jul

1.8125

+0.105

+0.1100

ITT Contract

Month

Settle

Diff

Spread

Dec

1.7825

+0.110

+0.0775

Jan

1.705

+0.110

—

Technical Picture

Futures continue to consolidate between $1.66–$1.70, forming a tight mid-December range as liquidity thins ahead of year-end. Momentum remains neutral with no major catalyst present until the next EIA update.

Key levels:

  • Support: $1.655

  • Resistance: $1.685

A breakout above $1.685 would likely bring light follow-through buying, while a dip below $1.655 opens the door toward the low-$1.63s.

Summary

Ethanol futures held steady with CU Dec at $1.6725, with the curve moving only marginally. Production remains stable, export demand continues to offer support, and cash markets are quiet but orderly. The market is behaving seasonally with light holiday-period activity and consistent fundamentals.

Technicals

Coolidge Report 12-9.pdf228.42 KB • PDF File

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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