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- Ethanol Market Update - 2/10/26
February 11, 2026
Overview
Market Overview
Chicago ethanol futures finished Monday firm, extending last week’s recovery and pushing the forward curve to new short-term highs. Strength was broad-based across the strip, with gains of +1.0¢ posted consistently from nearby through deferred contracts. Trade remains orderly, but improving sentiment is evident as buyers continue to re-engage on dips.
Front-end demand remains steady, while the back half of 2026 continues to grind higher, suggesting growing confidence in longer-term fundamentals. Volume was moderate, and open interest continues to build, pointing to fresh positioning rather than short covering alone.
Production Update
U.S. ethanol production remains stable, with plants running at healthy utilization rates. Margins continue to be supported by manageable corn inputs and steady coproduct pricing. No widespread outages or operational disruptions have been reported.
Estimated Production: ~1.13 million bpd
Utilization Rate: ~76–77%
Operating Environment: Stable; favorable margins sustaining output
Production levels remain sufficient to meet domestic demand, but not excessive enough to pressure the nearby curve materially.
Futures & Curve Structure
Ethanol CU – 2/9 Settlements
Feb ’26: 1.6250
Mar ’26: 1.6500
Apr ’26: 1.6800
May ’26: 1.7000
Jun ’26: 1.7100
Jul ’26: 1.7125
The curve remains modestly backward in the front months, with spreads holding firm as nearby supply stays balanced. Deferred values continue to rise incrementally, flattening the overall curve and reinforcing a constructive medium-term outlook.
Volume & Open Interest
Estimated Volume: 2,915 contracts
Total Open Interest: 40,556 contracts
Rising open interest alongside higher prices suggests new length entering the market rather than liquidation-driven price action.
Market Insight
Ethanol futures are gaining momentum as the market reassesses downside risks. While demand growth remains seasonal and measured, supply discipline and stable production are preventing meaningful selloffs. The steady climb in deferred contracts indicates that participants are increasingly comfortable owning ethanol exposure further out the curve.
Near-term direction will remain sensitive to energy market sentiment and blending economics, but technical structure currently favors consolidation to higher.
Summary
Ethanol futures closed Monday stronger across the board, with March settling at $1.65 and the forward curve continuing to firm. Production remains stable, demand is steady, and open interest growth points to improving market confidence.
As February progresses, attention will remain on margin sustainability, export flows, and whether the recent rally can be maintained without a pullback.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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