Ethanol Market Update - 2/11/26

Overview

Market Overview

Ethanol futures extended gains on Tuesday, with strength concentrated across the front half of the curve. The market continues to grind higher as steady buying interest supports nearby contracts and reinforces upward momentum established earlier in the week.

Volume improved to 5,669 contracts, while open interest held firm near 40,673, suggesting continued participation rather than short-covering alone. The tone remains constructive, particularly in the Q1–Q2 window.

Futures Settlements (2/10)

The curve remains upward sloping through summer, with July printing above $1.72 and the deferred strip maintaining steady strength. Gains were uniform, reflecting broad-based support rather than isolated positioning.

Curve Structure & Spreads

• The front months remain firm, with Feb–Mar holding solid carry.

• Strength through Q2 and into summer reinforces tightening near-term balances.

• Deferred months (Q4 2026 and early 2027) advanced modestly, maintaining structure without aggressive steepening.

Overall, the forward curve suggests improving confidence in spring and summer demand fundamentals.

Market Insight

The ethanol market continues to exhibit steady upside momentum. Buying interest appears methodical rather than reactive, indicating improving sentiment and stable liquidity conditions.

With open interest elevated and volume expanding, participation remains healthy. Absent a shift in feedstock costs or export flows, price action appears positioned to test recent highs in the near term.

Summary

Ethanol futures closed higher again, with front-month February settling at $1.6350 and summer values pushing into the low $1.72s. The curve remains firm and upward sloping, supported by consistent buying interest and steady participation.

Momentum remains positive heading into mid-February, with traders focused on demand trends and any shifts in production dynamics.

Technicals

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