- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 2/12/26
February 12, 2026
Overview
Market Overview
Ethanol futures accelerated higher Wednesday, posting another broad-based advance across the entire forward curve. Gains of +2.0¢ dominated trade, with the rally extending from the nearby February contract through deferred 2027 positions. Momentum remains firmly positive as buyers continue to press the market higher.
Estimated volume reached 3,735 contracts, while open interest expanded to 42,196, indicating fresh participation and new length entering the market. The tone has clearly shifted from consolidation to breakout, with price action now probing multi-week highs.
Futures Settlements (2/11)
Month | Settle | Change |
|---|---|---|
Feb 26 | 1.6500 | +0.0150 |
Mar 26 | 1.6800 | +0.0200 |
Apr 26 | 1.7100 | +0.0200 |
May 26 | 1.7300 | +0.0200 |
Jun 26 | 1.7400 | +0.0200 |
Jul 26 | 1.7425 | +0.0200 |
Aug 26 | 1.7400 | +0.0200 |
Sep 26 | 1.7350 | +0.0200 |
Oct 26 | 1.7125 | +0.0200 |
Nov 26 | 1.6725 | +0.0200 |
Dec 26 | 1.6475 | +0.0200 |
The summer strip continues to lead, with July settling above $1.74. Deferred months followed closely, maintaining a firm and orderly structure.
Curve Structure & Spreads
Front-end contracts strengthened further, reinforcing tightening near-term balance.
Q2 and Q3 contracts remain the strongest portion of the curve.
Back-end participation suggests improving medium-term confidence rather than short-covering alone.
The curve remains upward sloping into summer before gradually easing into late 2026, consistent with typical seasonal structure but at elevated price levels.
Production & Fundamental Backdrop
Production remains steady near recent operating rates, with no significant supply disruptions reported. Margins remain supportive, but the pace of price appreciation may begin to test forward selling interest from producers.
Demand signals remain stable, and export flows continue to provide an underlying bid. The current rally appears driven by positioning and technical momentum layered on top of balanced fundamentals.
Market Insight
Wednesday’s follow-through rally reinforces the bullish tone that has developed over the past week. Rising open interest alongside higher prices signals conviction from market participants. However, with the curve approaching recent highs, traders will be watching for signs of producer hedge pressure or profit-taking.
If strength continues, near-term resistance levels may come into focus, particularly in the March and April contracts.
Summary
Ethanol futures extended gains across the board, with March settling at $1.68 and the summer strip pushing into the mid-$1.74 range. Open interest expanded, volume remained solid, and market structure continues to firm.
Momentum remains clearly positive heading into mid-February, though the market may soon test levels that encourage commercial selling.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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