- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 2/5/26
February 5, 2026
Overview
Market Overview
Chicago ethanol futures finished Wednesday modestly lower across the curve, retracing a portion of Tuesday’s sharp rebound. Losses were orderly and broadly consistent, reflecting profit-taking rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals. Despite the pullback, values remain well within the established January–February trading range.
The curve continues to show mild backwardation in the front months, with nearby demand steady and no signs of stress in physical availability. Trading activity was healthy, particularly in the spring and summer contracts, suggesting continued engagement from both commercial hedgers and speculative participants.
Production Update
U.S. ethanol production remains stable, with plant operating rates holding steady into early February. Liquidity Energy’s internal modeling indicates no meaningful change in output levels, as margins remain workable despite recent softness in flat price.
Estimated Production: ~1.12–1.14 MMbpd
Utilization Rate: ~76–77%
Operating Environment: Stable, with no widespread outages reported
Corn input costs and coproduct values continue to support current run rates, keeping supply balanced with seasonal demand.
Futures & Curve Structure (2/4 Settles)
Feb 26: 1.5925 (−1.0¢)
Mar 26: 1.6175 (−1.0¢)
Apr 26: 1.6450 (−1.0¢)
May 26: 1.6650 (−1.0¢)
Jun 26: 1.6775 (−0.75¢)
Jul 26: 1.6800 (−1.0¢)
Calendar spreads softened modestly but remain backward, indicating adequate nearby supply with no urgency from blenders. The Q2–Q3 structure remains relatively flat, reinforcing the view of a well-balanced forward market.
Volume & Open Interest
Estimated Volume: 6,108 contracts
Prior Day Open Interest: 36,962
Volume increased notably versus earlier sessions, concentrated in March through October, highlighting active positioning in the core demand months.
Market Insight
Wednesday’s pullback appears corrective following Tuesday’s strength rather than indicative of renewed downside pressure. The market continues to trade technically, with participants responding to short-term momentum while longer-term fundamentals remain largely unchanged.
Absent a material shift in export demand, blending economics, or production disruptions, ethanol futures are likely to remain rangebound with spreads doing most of the signaling.
Summary
Ethanol futures closed Wednesday modestly lower, with Feb settling at $1.5925 and losses evenly distributed across the curve. Production remains steady, liquidity improved, and the forward structure continues to suggest a balanced supply environment.
Near-term focus will remain on demand signals and whether recent volatility resolves into consolidation or another test of range highs.
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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