Ethanol Market Update - 2/9/26

Overview

Market Overview

Chicago ethanol futures closed Friday firmer across the curve, extending last week’s recovery and pushing values toward the upper end of the recent range. Strength was broad-based from the front months through the back of the curve, with steady participation and improving volume signaling renewed confidence after early-February softness.

The market continues to respond to a balanced fundamental backdrop: steady production, stable blending demand, and improving sentiment following last week’s pullback. While no single catalyst drove the move higher, buyers appeared comfortable stepping back in as prices stabilized above recent support.

Production Update

U.S. ethanol production remains steady, with no meaningful change in operating conditions observed heading into mid-February.

• Estimated Production: ~1.12–1.14 MMbpd

• Utilization Rates: ~76–77%

• Operating Environment: Stable; no widespread outages reported

Plants continue to run consistently, supported by manageable corn costs and steady coproduct values. Seasonal demand remains typical for this time of year, with no material disruptions expected near term.

Futures & Curve Structure (2/6 Settlements)

Curve highlights:

• Front-end strength led the move, with February and March pushing higher in tandem

• The curve remains backward in the nearby months, though spreads have tightened

• Q2 and summer values continue to attract interest as the curve flattens modestly

Volume was solid, and open interest remains elevated, suggesting the move was driven by fresh positioning rather than short-covering alone.

Market Insight

Ethanol futures are regaining upward momentum following last week’s consolidation. The ability of the market to hold gains across the entire curve points to improved confidence in the demand outlook, even as seasonal blending remains subdued.

Near-term trade is likely to remain technical and spread-focused, with participants watching whether front-end values can sustain levels above $1.60. Absent a meaningful shift in production or exports, price action should remain orderly, with dips continuing to find buying interest.

Summary

Ethanol futures closed Friday stronger across the board, led by firm front-month gains and steady participation throughout the curve. Production remains stable, fundamentals are balanced, and the market appears comfortable rebuilding length after the recent pullback.

As the market moves deeper into February, attention will remain on spread behavior, export activity, and whether demand improves enough to support a sustained breakout higher.

Technicals

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