Ethanol Market Update - 6/10/25

Overview

Executive Summary
Production fell sharply today, marking the largest single-day drop in over a week. Utilization dipped to 70% as several Midwestern plants scaled back throughput.

Total MMBTU Produced: 405,438
Daily Production Change: –9,266 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Chief Ethanol Fuels – Hastings
Largest Decrease in Production: The Andersons – Albion Ethanol LLC
Overall Plant Utilization: 70%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 38
Plants Below Utilization Average: 27
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%

Market Insight
Today’s decline breaks a multi-day trend of relative stability, with output pulling back closer to late-May levels. Notably, Albion's substantial drop reversed gains seen earlier in the month, while Hastings offered the only standout gain.

Despite the weakness, utilization remains near the seasonal norm. If this lower production trend extends into midweek, it could firm prices ahead of next week’s EIA data.

Key narrative shift: The 7-day rolling average remains elevated at 414,296 MMBTU, suggesting broader output strength even amid today’s localized pullback.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Chief Ethanol Fuels – Hastings
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• The Andersons – Albion Ethanol LLC

Market Implications & Trade Insights
Short-Term Price Impact: Supportive; sharp declines at key plants could tighten supply if mirrored more broadly across the Corn Belt.
Logistics Watch: Central Illinois and northeast Nebraska bear watching as volatility in plant output may affect rail and storage planning.

EIA Weekly Estimate
Estimated Production: 1,034,000 barrels/day

Technicals

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