Ethanol Market Update - 6/12/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production rose moderately today, driven by output recoveries in select western facilities. Utilization remains elevated, though less aggressive than last week’s surge.

• Total MMBTU Produced: 415,479

• Daily Production Change: +12,632 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: The Andersons – Albion Ethanol LLC

• Largest Decrease in Production: Arkalon Energy LLC

• Overall Plant Utilization: 72%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 37

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 28

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 33%

Market Insight

Production is stabilizing around the high 400k MMBTU mark, with most of the recent volatility now behind us. Although daily gains are modest, plant throughput is generally holding near capacity, indicating steady forward margins and few signs of curtailment.

Key narrative shift: Week-on-week variation is flattening, hinting at potential equilibrium between producer incentives and logistical limits.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
◦ The Andersons – Albion Ethanol LLC

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
◦ Arkalon Energy LLC

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral to mildly supportive; strong throughput may support summer demand assumptions but limit bullish price potential.

• Logistics Watch: Steady output across the Corn Belt may strain local inventories; monitor plant-level inventory holding data closely.

Technicals

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