- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 6/16/25
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August 1, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production fell sharply today, marking the largest single-day drop in over a week. Utilization dipped to 72% as several Midwestern plants scaled back throughput.
Total MMBTU Produced: 418,196
Daily Production Change: –227 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Elite Octane - Atlantic
Largest Decrease in Production: Ringneck Energy
Overall Plant Utilization: 72%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 35
Plants Below Utilization Average: 30
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s decline breaks a multi-day trend of relative stability, with output pulling back closer to late-May levels. Notably, Ringneck Energy’s substantial drop reversed gains seen earlier in the month, while Elite Octane - Atlantic offered the only standout gain.
Despite the weakness, utilization remains near the seasonal norm. If this lower production trend extends into midweek, it could firm prices ahead of next week’s EIA data.
Key narrative shift: The 7-day rolling average remains elevated at 411,762 MMBTU, suggesting broader output strength even amid today’s localized pullback.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 418,196 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | 411,762 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 72% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Elite Octane - Atlantic
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Ringneck Energy
Market Implications & Trade Insights
Short-Term Price Impact: Supportive; sharp declines at key plants could tighten supply if mirrored more broadly across the Corn Belt.
Logistics Watch: Central Illinois and northeast Nebraska bear watching as volatility in plant output may affect rail and storage planning.
EIA Weekly Estimate
Week Ending | Estimated Production |
|---|---|
6/14/2025 | 1,093,000 barrels/day |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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