- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 6/17/25
August 1, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production fell further today, extending the sharp pullback that began early this week. Utilization dropped to 69%, its lowest level in several weeks, as plants across the Midwest trimmed output.
Total MMBTU Produced: 395,353
Daily Production Change: –15,454 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains Madison LLC
Largest Decrease in Production: Red Trail Energy LLC
Overall Plant Utilization: 69%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 33
Plants Below Utilization Average: 32
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s sharp decline compounds yesterday’s weakness, with plant-level slowdowns seen particularly in the Northern Plains. The standout gain from Green Plains Madison LLC was not enough to offset widespread cutbacks.
Key narrative shift: The 7-day rolling average fell to 411,056 MMBTU, signaling a break from early June’s strength and moving output closer to late-May levels.
If this softness persists, it could provide near-term price support and shift sentiment ahead of the next EIA release.
Production Overview]=
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 395,353 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | 411,056 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 69% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Green Plains Madison LLC
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Red Trail Energy LLC
Market Implications & Trade Insights
Short-Term Price Impact: Supportive; cumulative production cuts could begin to tighten supply if mirrored broadly across the Corn Belt.
Logistics Watch: Rail and storage planners should monitor Upper Midwest facilities closely for potential bottlenecks as output moderates.
EIA Weekly Estimate
Week Ending | Estimated Production |
|---|---|
6/13/2025 | 1,094,000 barrels/day |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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