Ethanol Market Update - 6/3/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production dipped modestly, though overall plant utilization remained firm above the key 70% threshold.

• Total MMBTU Produced: 415,765

• Daily Production Change: –2,291 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: Red Trail Energy LLC

• Largest Decrease in Production: Al-Corn Clean Fuel

• Overall Plant Utilization: 72%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 42

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 23

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 35%

Market Insight

Today’s modest decline comes after a high-volume streak, suggesting a slight pause amid already elevated utilization. Notably, Red Trail Energy LLC led gains, helping stabilize volume despite a notable drop at Al-Corn Clean Fuel.

With average utilization remaining above 70%, the production trend still reflects a bullish bias toward maintaining supply ahead of peak summer driving. Any sustained softness could ease the short-term supply pressure expected after last week’s surge.

Key narrative shift: Despite the dip, production remains near recent highs and above 2-year averages, underscoring market confidence and robust crush margins.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):

• Red Trail Energy LLC

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):

• Al-Corn Clean Fuel

Market Implications & Trade Insights

• Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral to slightly bullish; today's pullback may relieve supply pressure concerns.

• Logistics Watch: Western Corn Belt remains vulnerable to congestion if mid-week throughput rebounds.

EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/30/2025

• Estimated Production: 1,029,000 barrels/day
  (revised from earlier reporting)

• Prior Week’s Actual (EIA): 1,036,000 barrels/day

Technicals

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