- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 6/4/25
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June 15, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production declined sharply today, marking a second consecutive drop and reversing much of Monday’s strength. Losses were led by deep pullbacks in the Upper Midwest and central Iowa.
While the overall utilization rate remains resilient at 71%, today's retracement reflects growing divergence among individual plants, particularly as some fall further below their historical run rates.
Total MMBTU Produced: 405,184
Daily Production Change: –7,727 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production:
Mid America Agri Products - Madrid (+1,696 MMBTU)
Largest Decrease in Production:
Patriot Renewable Fuels – Annawan (–5,925 MMBTU)
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 40
Plants Below Utilization Average: 25
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 38%
Market Insight
Today’s sizable contraction follows several days of mixed production swings. The significant loss at Annawan erased gains made earlier in the week, while a few smaller plants (e.g., Madrid) posted modest rebounds.
Utilization remains well above seasonal benchmarks, suggesting that overall margin structure continues to support high output. However, dispersion in individual plant performance is widening, possibly reflecting region-specific feedstock constraints or early maintenance scheduling.
Key narrative shift: A widening spread between top- and bottom-tier producers points to emerging idiosyncratic slowdowns — though the broader 7-day trend remains comfortably elevated.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 405,184 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | 410,420 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
Mid America Agri Products - Madrid (+1,696 MMBTU)
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
Patriot Renewable Fuels – Annawan (–5,925 MMBTU)
Market Implications & Trade Insights
Short-Term Price Impact: Neutral to slightly supportive; overall declines are modest and offset by healthy utilization.
Logistics Watch: Monitor Northern Iowa and Western Illinois hubs, where loadouts may soften if below-average utilization persists.
EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 5/30/2025
Estimated Production: 1,029,000 barrels/day
(vs. last week’s actual of 1,036,000 b/d)
Technicals
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Disclaimer
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