- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 6/9/25
June 15, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production dipped slightly to begin the week, with no plants reporting a material increase in output. The modest decline was led by Valero Lakota, though utilization remains well above seasonal norms.
Total MMBTU Produced: 414,840
Daily Production Change: –3,600 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: No plant reported an increase in production
Largest Decrease in Production: Valero Renewables – Lakota (–4,000 MMBTU)
Overall Plant Utilization: 72%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 41
Plants Below Utilization Average: 24
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 35%
Market Insight
Today’s report shows a soft start to the week, with Valero Lakota driving most of the downside. Despite this, aggregate production remains strong, and the 7-day rolling average is firmly above historical levels.
Key narrative shift: A zero-gain day is rare and may hint at broader flatlining conditions. That said, utilization strength continues to reflect a supportive margin environment across most operators.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 414,840 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | 417,847 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 72% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• None – no plants posted gains today
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Valero Renewables – Lakota (–4,000 MMBTU)
Market Implications & Trade Insights
Short-Term Price Impact: Slightly bullish. Lack of upward movement combined with declining throughput may suggest tightening supply if sustained.
Logistics Watch: Close watch on Valero’s Lakota facility and surrounding nodes, which could see impact if outages persist.
EIA Weekly Estimate – Week Ending 6/7/2025
Estimated Production: 1,399,000 barrels/day
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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