- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 7/16/25
Executive Summary
Production fell sharply to 379,921 MMBTU today, the lowest daily total since April. Utilization dropped to 64%, with widespread moderation across key Midwest producers. Hastings led the pullback, while Gowrie posted the strongest gain.
Daily Production Change: –13,853 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Gowrie
Largest Decrease in Production: Chief Ethanol Fuels – Hastings
Plants Above Utilization Average: 42
Plants Below Utilization Average: 23
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s drop marks the sharpest single-day decline in nearly two months, signaling a broader supply adjustment underway. With sub-380k production and utilization dipping to 64%, the industry may be entering a mid-July correction phase, potentially in response to earlier oversupply or regional demand soft spots.
Despite the pullback, the model continues to track within a tight margin of recent EIA data. We’ll recalibrate the EIA estimate for the 7/12 week based on final weekly MMBTU totals and report that later this week.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 379,921 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~396,000 MMBTU (est.) |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 64% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Gowrie
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Chief Ethanol Fuels – Hastings
Week Ending | Estimated Production | Notes |
|---|---|---|
7/12/2025 | 1.070 million b/d | Estimate based on 7-day average |
Technicals
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