- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 7/17/25
July 31, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production climbed slightly to 401,286 MMBTU today, marking a return above the 400k level. Utilization improved to 67%, with Menlo driving gains and Gowrie posting the largest decline.
Daily Production Change: +1,100 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Menlo
Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Gowrie
Plants Above Utilization Average: 39
Plants Below Utilization Average: 26
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s rebound follows two days of weaker output and offers modest reassurance. Utilization remains historically soft, but the shift back above 400k MMBTU is notable.
The EIA print for the week ending 7/12 came in at 1.087M b/d, compared to our model estimate of 1.070M b/d — a miss of just –1.56%, keeping us tightly aligned on a 4-week basis.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 401,286 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~395,000 MMBTU (est.) |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 67% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Menlo
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Gowrie
EIA Accuracy Recap
Week Ending | Estimate | Actual | Miss % |
|---|---|---|---|
7/12/2025 | 1.070M b/d | 1.087M b/d | –1.56% |
Technicals
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