- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 7/28/25
September 15, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production eased modestly to 412,277 MMBTU to start the week. Utilization held firm at 71%, with Elite Octane – Atlantic posting the strongest gain and Marquis Energy – Wisconsin seeing the largest pullback.
Last week’s EIA ethanol production report landed exactly in line with our estimate of 1.078M b/d — 0% deviation, underscoring model strength.
Daily Production Change: –2,911 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Elite Octane – Atlantic
Largest Decrease in Production: Marquis Energy – Wisconsin
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 38
Plants Below Utilization Average: 27
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s pullback breaks a string of strong sessions but keeps the 7-day average well above the 2-year baseline. The dip appears modest and likely noise ahead of month-end positioning. Market focus now shifts to export demand and rail loadings into early August.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 412,277 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~415,000 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Elite Octane – Atlantic
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Marquis Energy – Wisconsin
EIA Production Estimate
EIA Production Estimate for Report 7/30:
📌 1.081M b/d
Last Week’s Accuracy: 0% miss (est. 1.078M vs. actual 1.078M)
Current model suggests another strong print if output holds near current levels.
Technicals
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