Ethanol Market Update - 7/30/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol production slipped lower today to 393,428 MMBTU, marking the second decline in a row after Monday’s high. Utilization dropped to 66%, with several Western Corn Belt plants pulling back.

Production remains elevated on a 7-day basis, but today's weakness may trim the top end of next week's forecast if it continues.

• Daily Production Change: –1,726 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Emmetsburg

• Largest Decrease in Production: Chief Ethanol Fuels – Hastings

• Overall Plant Utilization: 66%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 39

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 26

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%

Market Insight

Today’s retreat puts the 7-day average just above 413,000 MMBTU, still strong vs the long-term baseline. But this softness could moderate next week’s EIA outlook if repeated.

For now, we maintain our unadjusted EIA estimate of 1.081M b/d for the 7/31 report — based solely on data through Friday 7/26.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Emmetsburg

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Chief Ethanol Fuels – Hastings

EIA Production Estimate

📌 EIA Estimate for 7/30 Report:
1.081M b/d (unadjusted)

Technicals

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