Ethanol Market Update - 8/1/25

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Author

Nicholas Coolidge
August 01, 2025

August 1, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Production bounced higher to close the week, rising sharply from Thursday’s levels. Utilization climbed to 73%, its highest since early July. While recent volatility persists, today’s gains help normalize the week’s average and may suggest stronger momentum into next week's EIA print.

Key Metrics

  • Total MMBTU Produced: 424,624

  • Day-on-Day Change: +36,746 MMBTU

  • Largest Increase: KAAPA Ethanol – Aurora

  • Largest Decrease: POET Biorefining – Shell Rock

  • Overall Plant Utilization: 73%

  • Plants Above Utilization Average: 38

  • Plants Below Utilization Average: 27

  • Percent Below 2-Year Average: 41%

Market Insight

After two soft sessions, production jumped back above 420,000 MMBTU — making today the strongest daily print since July 23. KAAPA Aurora led gains, while POET Shell Rock slipped slightly.

We were off by just 1.64% on this week’s print (our estimate: 1.078M vs actual: 1.096M), maintaining a multi-week stretch of sub-2% error.

We also note a revision to Thursday’s number:
7/31 revised from 393,428 → 387,878 MMBTU

Technicals

Coolidge Report 8-1-25.pdf187.60 KB • PDF File

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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