- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 8/12/25
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August 13, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production was essentially flat today at 416,986 MMBTU, slipping –178 MMBTU from Sunday. Utilization held at 71%. Dakota Ethanol posted the largest single‑day gain, while Marquis Energy – Wisconsin showed the biggest pullback.
Daily Production Change: –178 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Dakota Ethanol
Largest Decrease in Production: Marquis Energy – Wisconsin
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 38
Plants Below Utilization Average: 27
Percent of Plants Below 2‑Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s print keeps the near‑term trend intact, with the 7‑day rolling average at ~417,400 MMBTU, comfortably above the 2‑year baseline of 386,525 MMBTU. Momentum has been steady since early August with no outsized plant outages in the file. We did not observe new prior‑day revisions in today’s dataset.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 416,986 MMBTU |
7‑Day Rolling Avg. | ~417,400 MMBTU |
2‑Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant‑Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day‑over‑Day):
• Dakota Ethanol
Top Production Loss (Day‑over‑Day):
• Marquis Energy – Wisconsin
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/13
Estimate: 1.123M b/d
Method note: Calibrated to the latest confirmed EIA print and re‑tuned for last week’s bias.
Market Settlement
All prices reflect end-of-day settlements from August 8th, 2025
CU Contract Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7775 | Aug/Sep: –0.0075 |
Sep | 1.7850 | Sep/Oct: +0.0425 |
Oct | 1.7425 | Oct/Nov: +0.0800 |
Nov | 1.6625 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550 |
Dec | 1.6075 | Dec/Jan: +0.0350 |
Jan | 1.5725 | Jan/Feb: –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.5850 | Feb/Mar: –0.0175 |
Mar | 1.6025 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6250 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6350 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6425 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6400 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6700
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5875
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6350
1H Avg: 1.6125
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0825
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0475
EZ/CU Differential
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8900 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.8925 | +0.1075 |
Oct | 1.8500 | +0.1075 |
Nov | 1.7700 | +0.1075 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spreads |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.7850 | – |
Aug | 1.7825 | Aug/Sep: +0.0175 |
Sep | 1.7650 | Sep/Oct: +0.0625 |
Oct | 1.7025 | Oct/Nov: +0.0675 |
Nov | 1.6350 | Nov/Dec: +0.0450 |
Dec | 1.5900 | Dec/Jan: +0.0125 |
Jan | 1.5775 | Jan/Feb: –0.0175 |
Feb | 1.5950 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6150 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8800 | –0.0075 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8875 | +0.0350 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8525 | +0.0800 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7725 | +0.0550 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7175 | +0.0350 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6825 | –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6950 | –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7125 | –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7350 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7450 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7525 | +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6400 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spreads |
|---|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.9100 | – | – |
Aug | 1.8875 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0075 |
Sep | 1.8950 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0425 |
Oct | 1.8525 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0800 |
Nov | 1.7725 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550 |
Dec | 1.7175 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.7600 |
NWS | 1.7900 |
Aug | 1.7775 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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