Ethanol Market Update - 8/12/25

Executive Summary

Production held firm today at 418,074 MMBTU, marking a modest +1,982 MMBTU gain from yesterday. Utilization stayed elevated at 73%, with POET Biorefining – Chancellor posting the largest single-day increase, while Green Plains – Hopewell saw the sharpest pullback.

We are holding our EIA Production Estimate for Wednesday’s 8/13 report at 1.111M b/d (unadjusted), based on the latest 7-day Sat–Fri average of 413,067 MMBTU/day and our 4-week calibration factor. Last week’s call was ~0.09% off the official EIA figure, keeping us firmly within our 1–3% accuracy target.

• Daily Production Change: +1,982 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Chancellor

• Largest Decrease in Production: Green Plains – Hopewell

• Overall Plant Utilization: 73%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 38

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 27

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 40%

Market Insight

Today’s small uptick keeps production near the recent highs posted late last week, with stability likely to support basis and spot sentiment heading into tomorrow’s EIA release. The blend and export pace remain in focus — both will help determine whether the upcoming supply/demand balance tips toward a build or a modest draw in stocks.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Chancellor

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Green Plains – Hopewell

EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/13/25

• Estimate: 1.111M b/d (unadjusted, issued today)

• Model accuracy last week: ~–0.09% vs actual

• Balance outlook: Neutral to slightly bullish, pending blend rate confirmation

All pricing reflects end‑of‑day settlements from August 11th, 2025.

CU Contract Settles & Spreads

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6725

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5850

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6325

• 1H Avg: 1.6100

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0875

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0475

EZ/CU Differential

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt Market

Technicals

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