- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 8/13/25
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August 14, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production dipped slightly today to 401,268 MMBTU, down 1,442 MMBTU from yesterday. Utilization eased to 68%, with Valero Albion showing the largest day-over-day decline, while Lincolnway Energy posted the biggest gain.
Daily Production Change: –1,442 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Lincolnway Energy, LLC
Largest Decrease in Production: Valero Renewable Fuels – Albion
Overall Plant Utilization: 68%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 31
Plants Below Utilization Average: 34
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 44%
Market Insight
Today’s modest pullback keeps production hovering in the low 400k MMBTU range. If runs stay here into the EIA survey cutoff on Friday, the weekly average will finish slightly lower than last week, which keeps us comfortable holding our current EIA production estimate.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 401,268 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~404,200 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 68% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Lincolnway Energy, LLC
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Valero Renewable Fuels – Albion
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/14
Estimate: 1.110M b/d (unchanged from Monday)
Model accuracy last week: ~0.36% vs actual
Based on current trends, we lean toward slightly tighter supply, depending on final survey-day runs.
8/12/25 Settlement Data
CU Contract Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7400 | Aug/Sep: +0.0150 |
Sep | 1.7250 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350 |
Oct | 1.6900 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 |
Nov | 1.6200 | Nov/Dec: +0.0500 |
Dec | 1.5700 | Dec/Jan: +0.0350 |
Jan | 1.5350 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 |
Feb | 1.5450 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.5650 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.5850 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.5950 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6025 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6000 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6275
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5475
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.5950
1H Avg: 1.5725
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0800
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0475
EZ/CU Differential
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8525 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.8325 | +0.1075 |
Oct | 1.8500 | +0.1600 |
Nov | 1.7700 | +0.1500 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.7240 | – |
Aug | 1.7325 | Aug/Sep: +0.0250 |
Sep | 1.7075 | Sep/Oct: +0.0525 |
Oct | 1.6550 | Oct/Nov: +0.0600 |
Nov | 1.5950 | Nov/Dec: +0.0425 |
Dec | 1.5525 | Dec/Jan: +0.0125 |
Jan | 1.5400 | Jan/Feb: –0.0150 |
Feb | 1.5550 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.5750 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8425 | +0.0150 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8275 | +0.0275 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8000 | +0.0700 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7300 | +0.0500 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.6800 | +0.0350 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6450 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6550 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.6750 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.6950 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7050 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7125 | +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6000 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.9100 | – | – |
Aug | 1.8500 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: +0.0150 |
Sep | 1.8350 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350 |
Oct | 1.8000 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 |
Nov | 1.7300 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0500 |
Dec | 1.6800 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.7275 |
NWS | 1.7575 |
Aug | 1.7400 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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