- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/14/25
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August 14, 2025
Overview
Overview
Executive Summary
Production eased slightly today to 400,985 MMBTU, a day-over-day drop of 3,214 MMBTU. Utilization slipped to 69%, with the largest pullback at POET Biorefining – Chancellor, while Golden Grain Energy posted the biggest increase.
Daily Production Change: –3,214 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Golden Grain Energy
Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Chancellor
Overall Plant Utilization: 69%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 28
Plants Below Utilization Average: 37
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 46%
Market Insight
Today’s pullback follows a modest rebound earlier in the week, keeping output in the mid-range for August. With Wednesday’s EIA report the actual came in at 1.093M b/d, which means we were off by –1.53%.
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 400,985 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~402,200 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 384,450 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 69% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Golden Grain Energy
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Chancellor
CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
All prices reflect end-of-day settlements from August 13th, 2025
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7525 | Aug/Sep: +0.0075 |
Sep | 1.7450 | Sep/Oct: +0.0375 |
Oct | 1.7075 | Oct/Nov: +0.0725 |
Nov | 1.6350 | Nov/Dec: +0.0525 |
Dec | 1.5825 | Dec/Jan: +0.0375 |
Jan | 1.5450 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 |
Feb | 1.5550 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 |
Mar | 1.5775 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6000 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6100 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6175 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6150 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4: 1.6425
Q1: 1.5600
Q2: 1.6100
1H: 1.5850
Q4/Q1: +0.0825
Q1/Q2: –0.0500
R11
TWS: 1.7275
NWS: 1.7575
Aug: 1.7525
NYH
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8550 | Aug/Sep: +0.0075 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8475 | Sep/Oct: +0.0300 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8175 | Oct/Nov: +0.0725 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7450 | Nov/Dec: +0.0525 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.6925 | Dec/Jan: +0.0375 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6550 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6650 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.6875 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7100 | Apr/May: –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7200 | May/Jun: –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7275 | Jun/Jul: +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6150 | – | – |
ITT
Month | Settle | CU Diff | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.9100 | – | – |
Aug | 1.8625 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: +0.0075 |
Sep | 1.8550 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0375 |
Oct | 1.8175 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0725 |
Nov | 1.7450 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0525 |
Dec | 1.6925 | +0.1100 | – |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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