- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/15/25
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August 15, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol production slipped modestly today to 396,238 MMBTU, down –2,885 MMBTU from yesterday. The largest single-day gain came from Marquis Energy – Hennepin, while Chief Ethanol – Hastings posted the steepest drop. Utilization eased to 66%, with 39 plants operating above the average and 27 below.
Daily Production Change: –2,885 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Marquis Energy – Hennepin
Largest Decrease in Production: Chief Ethanol – Hastings
Overall Plant Utilization: 66%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 39
Plants Below Utilization Average: 27
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 47%
Market Insight
The slight pullback in output follows a week of mixed daily prints and comes after Wednesday’s EIA report showed 1.093M b/d production vs. our 1.110M b/d estimate — a miss of just 1.53%, keeping us well within our 1–3% accuracy band.
With August now in mid-month, watch for potential tightening in supply should this softer production trend persist into next week’s survey window.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 396,238 MMBTU |
Day-over-Day Change | –2,885 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~398,500 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 384,925 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 66% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Marquis Energy – Hennepin
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Chief Ethanol – Hastings
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next | Key Curve Values |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7400 | Aug/Sep: +0.0150 | Q4: 1.6275 |
Sep | 1.7250 | Sep/Oct: +0.0325 | Q1: 1.5475 |
Oct | 1.6925 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 | Q2: 1.5975 |
Nov | 1.6225 | Nov/Dec: +0.0525 | 1H: 1.5725 |
Dec | 1.5700 | Dec/Jan: +0.0375 | Q4/Q1: +0.0800 |
Jan | 1.5325 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 | Q1/Q2: –0.0500 |
Feb | 1.5425 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 | – |
Mar | 1.5650 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 | – |
Apr | 1.5875 | Apr/May: –0.0100 | – |
May | 1.5975 | May/Jun: –0.0075 | – |
Jun | 1.6050 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 | – |
Jul | 1.6025 | – | – |
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8525 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.8325 | +0.1075 |
Oct | 1.8500 | +0.1575 |
Nov | 1.7700 | +0.1475 |
Argo
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.7275 | – |
Aug | 1.7325 | Aug/Sep: +0.0225 |
Sep | 1.7100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0525 |
Oct | 1.6575 | Oct/Nov: +0.0600 |
Nov | 1.5975 | Nov/Dec: +0.0450 |
Dec | 1.5525 | Dec/Jan: +0.0150 |
Jan | 1.5375 | Jan/Feb: –0.0175 |
Feb | 1.5550 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 |
Mar | 1.5775 | – |
NYH
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8425 | Aug/Sep: +0.0150 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8275 | Sep/Oct: +0.0250 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8025 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7325 | Nov/Dec: +0.0525 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.6800 | Dec/Jan: +0.0375 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6425 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6525 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.6750 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.6975 | Apr/May: –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7075 | May/Jun: –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7150 | Jun/Jul: +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6025 | – | – |
ITT
Month | Settle | CU Diff | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.9100 | – | – |
Aug | 1.8500 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: +0.0150 |
Sep | 1.8350 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0325 |
Oct | 1.8025 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 |
Nov | 1.7325 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0525 |
Dec | 1.6800 | +0.1100 | – |
R11
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.7200 |
NWS | 1.7500 |
Aug | 1.7400 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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