Ethanol Market Update - 8/18/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production moved lower today to 412,867 MMBTU, a decline of –4,158 MMBTU from the prior session. Utilization slipped to 71%, led by a pullback at Marquis Energy – Wisconsin, while Elite Octane – Atlantic posted the strongest increase.

• Daily Production Change: –4,158 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: Elite Octane – Atlantic

• Largest Decrease in Production: Marquis Energy – Wisconsin

• Overall Plant Utilization: 71%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 35

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 30

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Avg.: 42%

Market Insight

Today’s decline marks the first meaningful retracement after last week’s strength. Utilization remains broadly steady in line with seasonal trends, but the dip highlights continued volatility at a few larger plants.

Our forward view holds near 1.10M b/d into midweek, with steady blending demand and modest export support balancing output.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Elite Octane – Atlantic

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Marquis Energy – Wisconsin

EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/21

• Estimate: 1.102M b/d (unchanged from Monday)

• Last Week’s Actual: 1.093M b/d

• Model Accuracy: –1.6% vs actual

Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6550

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5700

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6200

• 1H Avg: 1.5950

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0850

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0500

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt Market

Technicals

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