- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/19/25
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August 19, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production edged lower to 411,285 MMBTU, down –1,582 MMBTU from the prior session. Utilization held at 71%, with the biggest pullback at Cardinal Ethanol, while Elite Octane – Atlantic once again led the day on the upside.
Daily Production Change: –1,582 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Elite Octane – Atlantic
Largest Decrease in Production: Cardinal Ethanol
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Avg.: 36
Plants Below Utilization Avg.: 29
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Avg.: 41%
Market Insight
After Monday’s retracement, today’s pullback was more modest, with output consolidating near the 412k MMBTU level. Utilization remains steady, underscoring a relatively balanced production backdrop despite scattered volatility at individual plants.
Our EIA estimate remains at 1.102M b/d into this week’s report, keeping us slightly above last week’s actual of 1.093M b/d. The margin of error (-1.6% last week) remains within our normal tolerance band.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 411,285 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~412,100 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | ~388,500 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Elite Octane – Atlantic
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Cardinal Ethanol
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/20
Estimate: 1.102M b/d (unchanged)
Last Week’s Actual: 1.093M b/d
Model Accuracy Last Week: –1.6% vs actual
Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7600 | Aug/Sep: 0.0000 |
Sep | 1.7600 | Sep/Oct: +0.0325 |
Oct | 1.7275 | Oct/Nov: +0.0750 |
Nov | 1.6525 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550 |
Dec | 1.5975 | Dec/Jan: +0.0400 |
Jan | 1.5575 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 |
Feb | 1.5675 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 |
Mar | 1.5900 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6125 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6225 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6300 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6275 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6600
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5725
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6225
1H Avg: 1.5975
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0875
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0500
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8725 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.8675 | +0.1075 |
Oct | 1.8300 | +0.1025 |
Nov | 1.7550 | +0.1025 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.7570 | – |
Aug | 1.7600 | Aug/Sep: +0.0150 |
Sep | 1.7450 | Sep/Oct: +0.0550 |
Oct | 1.6900 | Oct/Nov: +0.0650 |
Nov | 1.6250 | Nov/Dec: +0.0475 |
Dec | 1.5775 | Dec/Jan: +0.0150 |
Jan | 1.5625 | Jan/Feb: –0.0150 |
Feb | 1.5775 | Feb/Mar: –0.0250 |
Mar | 1.6025 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8625 | 0.0000 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8625 | +0.0250 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8375 | +0.0750 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7625 | +0.0550 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7075 | +0.0400 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6675 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6775 | –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7000 | –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7225 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7325 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7400 | +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6275 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8700 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: 0.0000 |
Sep | 1.8700 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0325 |
Oct | 1.8375 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0750 |
Nov | 1.7625 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550 |
Dec | 1.7075 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.7600 |
NWS | 1.7900 |
Aug | 1.7600 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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