Ethanol Market Update - 8/20/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production eased modestly today to 409,825 MMBTU, down –950 MMBTU from the prior session. Utilization held steady at 71%, with Valero Albion posting the largest gain while POET Biorefining – Coon Rapids led declines.

• Daily Production Change: –950 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: Valero Albion

• Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Coon Rapids

• Overall Plant Utilization: 71%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 34

• Plants Below Utilization Average: 31

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 43%

Market Insight

Today’s dip marks the second consecutive pullback this week, narrowing volumes closer to the lower end of the August range. Variability across the POET system continues to offset steadier gains at Valero and Green Plains facilities.

Our balance continues to hold at ~1.102M b/d into today’s EIA release, leaving us modestly above consensus. Last week’s miss (actual: 1.093M b/d vs. est. 1.110M b/d) underscores the current margin of error, but overall trends still point to output broadly in line with mid-summer norms.

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Valero Albion

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Coon Rapids

EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/20

• Estimate: 1.102M b/d (unchanged from earlier this week)

• Last Week’s Actual: 1.093M b/d

• Model Accuracy: –1.5% vs actual

• Outlook: Leaning neutral-to-slight draw, with blending demand steady and adjustment factors remaining balanced.

CU Contract Settles & Spreads

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6350

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5500

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6000

• 1H Avg: 1.5750

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0850

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0500

EZ/CU Differential

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt Market

Technicals

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Market Update

Natural Gas Daily Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC