Ethanol Market Update - 8/21/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol production moved lower again, with today’s EIA report showing 1.072M b/d, down 21k b/d from last week’s 1.093M b/d. Our model estimate of 1.102M b/d was 30k b/d above actual, a –2.7% miss. This confirms the volatility we’ve been tracking at large plants, with outages and slow restarts dragging utilization below expectations.

Key Highlights

• EIA Actual (week ending 8/16): 1.072M b/d

• Our Estimate: 1.102M b/d (–30k, –2.7%)

• Utilization: ~90% of nameplate capacity (based on our plant-level tracking)

• Market Balance: Steady blending demand continues, though export pull remains soft

Market Insight

While production is still historically elevated versus the 2-year average, the two consecutive weekly declines suggest plants are running with less margin cushion. Expect near-term output to hover close to 1.07–1.09M b/d as summer driving demand moderates and maintenance ramps.

Plant-Level Dynamics

• Largest pullback: Marquis Energy – Wisconsin (down sharply w/w)

• Largest gain: Elite Octane – Atlantic, which offset some of the broader Midwest slowdownProduction Overview

• Total Ethanol Produced: 411,505 MMBTU

• 7-Day Rolling Avg.: ~412,000 MMBTU

• 2-Year Avg.: ~388,000 MMBTU

• Utilization Rate: 71%

Top Plant-Level Movers (Day-over-Day):

• ↑ POET – Lake Crystal

• ↓ Green Plains – Central City

EIA Production Estimate

• Estimate (Report 8/21): 1.102M b/d

• Last Week’s Actual: 1.093M b/d

• Model Accuracy: –0.8%

Settlements & Spreads

Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads

• Aug: 1.7625 | Aug/Sep: –0.0175

• Sep: 1.7800 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350

• Oct: 1.7450 | Oct/Nov: +0.0850

• Nov: 1.6600 | Nov/Dec: +0.0625

• Dec: 1.5975 | Dec/Jan: +0.0450

• Jan: 1.5525 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100

• Feb: 1.5625 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225

• Mar: 1.5850 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225

• Apr: 1.6075 | Apr/May: –0.0100

• May: 1.6175 | May/Jun: –0.0075

• Jun: 1.6250 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025

• Jul: 1.6225 | –

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6675

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5675

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6175

• 1H Avg.: 1.5925

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1000

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0500

EZ/CU Contract

• Aug: 1.8750 | +0.1125

• Sep: 1.8875 | +0.1075

• Oct: 1.8550 | +0.1100

• Nov: 1.7700 | +0.1100

Argo Market

• Prompt: 1.7780

• Aug: 1.7725 | Aug/Sep: +0.0100

• Sep: 1.7625 | Sep/Oct: +0.0600

• Oct: 1.7025 | Oct/Nov: +0.0725

• Nov: 1.6300 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550

• Dec: 1.5750 | Dec/Jan: +0.0175

• Jan: 1.5575 | Jan/Feb: –0.0175

• Feb: 1.5750 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225

• Mar: 1.5975 | –

NYH Market

• Aug: 1.8650 | Aug/Sep: –0.0175 | Diff vs CU: +0.1025

• Sep: 1.8825 | Sep/Oct: +0.0275 | +0.1025

• Oct: 1.8550 | Oct/Nov: +0.0850 | +0.1100

• Nov: 1.7700 | Nov/Dec: +0.0625 | +0.1100

• Dec: 1.7075 | Dec/Jan: +0.0450 | +0.1100

• Jan: 1.6625 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 | +0.1100

• Feb: 1.6725 | Feb/Mar: –0.0225 | +0.1100

• Mar: 1.6950 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 | +0.1100

• Apr: 1.7175 | Apr/May: –0.0100 | +0.1100

• May: 1.7275 | May/Jun: –0.0075 | +0.1100

• Jun: 1.7350 | Jun/Jul: +0.1125 | +0.1100

• Jul: 1.6225 | –

ITT Contract

• Aug: 1.8725 | Diff: +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0175

• Sep: 1.8900 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350

• Oct: 1.8550 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0850

• Nov: 1.7700 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0625

• Dec: 1.7075 | +0.1100 | –

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: 1.7950

• NWS: 1.8250

• Aug: 1.7625

Technicals

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