- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/22/25
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August 22, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol futures firmed to end the week, with the CU curve posting gains across the front end. The EIA weekly report showed production at 1.072M b/d, down –21k from last week and below our 1.102M b/d estimate (–2.7%), reinforcing signs of tighter balances into late August.
Regional cash markets tracked stronger as Argo prompt pushed above $1.80, while NYH and ITT held consistent premiums vs. CU. Forward spreads widened modestly, with Q4 showing strength relative to Q1.
Production Overview
EIA Actual (8/21): 1.072M b/d (–21k w/w)
Our Estimate: 1.102M b/d (miss: –30k, –2.7%)
7-Day Rolling Avg: ~1.09M b/d
2-Year Avg: ~1.00M b/d
Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7750 | Aug/Sep: –0.0400 |
Sep | 1.8150 | Sep/Oct: +0.0400 |
Oct | 1.7750 | Oct/Nov: +0.0975 |
Nov | 1.6775 | Nov/Dec: +0.0725 |
Dec | 1.6050 | Dec/Jan: +0.0500 |
Jan | 1.5550 | Jan/Feb: –0.0050 |
Feb | 1.5600 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.5800 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.6000 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6100 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6175 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6175 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6850
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5650
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6100
1H Avg: 1.5875
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1200
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8875 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.9250 | +0.1100 |
Oct | 1.8850 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7875 | +0.1100 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.8100 | – |
Aug | 1.7950 | Aug/Sep: +0.0000 |
Sep | 1.7950 | Sep/Oct: +0.0700 |
Oct | 1.7250 | Oct/Nov: +0.0850 |
Nov | 1.6400 | Nov/Dec: +0.0600 |
Dec | 1.5800 | Dec/Jan: +0.0225 |
Jan | 1.5575 | Jan/Feb: –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.5700 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.5900 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8775 | –0.0400 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.9175 | +0.0325 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8850 | +0.0975 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7875 | +0.0725 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7150 | +0.0500 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6650 | –0.0050 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6700 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.6900 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7100 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7200 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7275 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6175 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8850 | +0.1100 | –0.0400 |
Sep | 1.9250 | +0.1100 | +0.0400 |
Oct | 1.8850 | +0.1100 | +0.0975 |
Nov | 1.7875 | +0.1100 | +0.0725 |
Dec | 1.7150 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.8225 |
NWS | 1.8525 |
Aug | 1.7750 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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