- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 8/25/25
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August 25, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production fell again to 397,797 MMBTU, a decline of –2,870 MMBTU from the prior day. Utilization slipped to 70%, with Marquis Energy – Wisconsin seeing the sharpest drop, while Elite Octane – Atlantic posted the largest single-day gain.
Daily Production Change: –2,870 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Elite Octane – Atlantic
Largest Decrease in Production: Marquis Energy – Wisconsin
Overall Plant Utilization: 70%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 34
Plants Below Utilization Average: 31
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Avg.: 43%
Market Insight
The second consecutive daily decline pulls production below 400k MMBTU for the first time since early August, reflecting volatility at several large Midwest producers.
Our EIA estimate for the upcoming 8/27 report is 1.095M b/d, holding steady versus last week’s 1.072M actual. If confirmed, this would imply a modest rebound, but still consistent with the softer trend observed across daily throughput data.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 397,797 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~406,500 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | ~388,000 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 70% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Elite Octane – Atlantic
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Marquis Energy – Wisconsin
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/27
Estimate: 1.095M b/d
Last Week’s Actual (8/21): 1.072M b/d
Last Week’s Miss: –30k b/d (–2.7%) vs our 1.102M estimate
Accuracy on 4-week rolling basis: ~–1%
Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7900 | Aug/Sep: –0.0700 |
Sep | 1.8600 | Sep/Oct: +0.0400 |
Oct | 1.8200 | Oct/Nov: +0.1025 |
Nov | 1.7175 | Nov/Dec: +0.0775 |
Dec | 1.6400 | Dec/Jan: +0.0550 |
Jan | 1.5850 | Jan/Feb: –0.0050 |
Feb | 1.5900 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6100 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.6300 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6400 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6475 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6475 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.7250
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5950
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6400
1H Avg: 1.6175
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1300
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9025 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.9750 | +0.1150 |
Oct | 1.9350 | +0.1150 |
Nov | 1.8325 | +0.1150 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.8100 | – |
Aug | 1.8250 | Aug/Sep: –0.0150 |
Sep | 1.8400 | Sep/Oct: +0.0700 |
Oct | 1.7700 | Oct/Nov: +0.0900 |
Nov | 1.6800 | Nov/Dec: +0.0675 |
Dec | 1.6125 | Dec/Jan: +0.0250 |
Jan | 1.5875 | Jan/Feb: –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.6000 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6200 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8590 | –0.1035 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.9625 | +0.0325 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.9300 | +0.1025 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8275 | +0.0775 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7500 | +0.0550 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6950 | –0.0050 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7000 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7200 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7400 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7500 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7575 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6475 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9000 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0700 |
Sep | 1.9700 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0400 |
Oct | 1.9300 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1025 |
Nov | 1.8275 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0775 |
Dec | 1.7500 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.8700 |
NWS | 1.9000 |
Aug | 1.7900 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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