Ethanol Market Update - 8/26/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Production edged higher today to 402,311 MMBTU, up from yesterday’s 398,393. Utilization held steady at 72%, with 39 plants running above the average rate. POET Gowrie posted the largest gain, while POET Arthur saw the largest single-day drop.

• Daily Production Change: +3,918 MMBTU

• Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Gowrie

• Largest Decrease in Production: POET Bioprocessing – Arthur

• Overall Plant Utilization: 72%

• Plants Above Utilization Average: 39

• Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: ~42%

Market Insight

Production continues to hover just above 400k MMBTU, with volatility tied to a few large Midwest facilities. The 7-day rolling average now stands at ~405,852 MMBTU, a touch lower than last week’s pace but still comfortably above the 2-year mean (~388k).

Production Overview

Plant-Level Insights

Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Gowrie

Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• POET Bioprocessing – Arthur

EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/28

• Estimate: 1.099M b/d (steady with earlier outlook)

• Last Week’s Actual: 1.072M b/d

• Last Estimate vs Actual Miss: –2.7%

Our model suggests the upcoming print could recover slightly from last week’s drop, but risks remain on the adjustment factor.

Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.7250

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5950

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6400

• 1H Avg: 1.6175

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1300

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450

EZ/CU Contract

Argo Market

NYH Market

ITT Contract

R11 Prompt Market

Technicals

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