- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/28/25
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August 28, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol production moved lower today to 391,607 MMBTU, down –6,266 MMBTU from yesterday’s level. Utilization slipped back to 70%, with POET Chancellor seeing the largest single-day gain and Marquis Energy – Illinois posting the sharpest decline.
Daily Production Change: –6,266 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Chancellor
Largest Decrease in Production: Marquis Energy – Illinois
Overall Plant Utilization: 70%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 34
Plants Below Utilization Average: 31
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: ~44%
Market Insight
Production is now at its lowest level since late July, erasing much of the rebound seen earlier in the week. The 7-day rolling average has softened to ~399k MMBTU, just above the 2-year seasonal mean, reflecting volatility concentrated at a few large Midwest plants.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 391,607 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~399,000 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | ~388,000 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 70% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Chancellor
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Marquis Energy – Illinois
Futures & Cash Settlements – 8/28
CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7950 | Aug/Sep: –0.0775 |
Sep | 1.8725 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350 |
Oct | 1.8375 | Oct/Nov: +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7275 | Nov/Dec: +0.0900 |
Dec | 1.6375 | Dec/Jan: +0.0675 |
Jan | 1.5700 | Jan/Feb: +0.0000 |
Feb | 1.5700 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.5900 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.6100 | Apr/May: –0.0150 |
May | 1.6250 | May/Jun: –0.0100 |
Jun | 1.6350 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6350 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.7350
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5775
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6225
1H Avg: 1.6000
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1575
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9075 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.9875 | +0.1150 |
Oct | 1.9500 | +0.1125 |
Nov | 1.8400 | +0.1125 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.8750 | – |
Aug | 1.8350 | Aug/Sep: –0.0200 |
Sep | 1.8550 | Sep/Oct: +0.0725 |
Oct | 1.7825 | Oct/Nov: +0.1000 |
Nov | 1.6825 | Nov/Dec: +0.0775 |
Dec | 1.6050 | Dec/Jan: +0.0350 |
Jan | 1.5700 | Jan/Feb: –0.0100 |
Feb | 1.5800 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6000 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8600 | –0.1150 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.9750 | +0.0275 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.9475 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8375 | +0.0900 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7475 | +0.0675 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6800 | +0.0000 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6800 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7000 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7200 | –0.0150 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7350 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7450 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6350 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9050 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0775 |
Sep | 1.9825 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0350 |
Oct | 1.9475 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8375 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0900 |
Dec | 1.7475 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.9100 |
NWS | 1.9400 |
Aug | 1.7950 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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