- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/29/25
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August 29, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol production climbed modestly today to 406,210 MMBTU, an increase of +1,448 MMBTU from Thursday. Utilization held steady at 72%, with 38 plants operating above the average rate. Green Plains Iowa Falls registered the largest daily gain, while Ringneck Energy showed the sharpest pullback.
Daily Production Change: +1,448 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains Iowa Falls
Largest Decrease in Production: Ringneck Energy
Overall Plant Utilization: 72%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 38
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: ~44%
Market Insight
Production steadied to close the week, keeping output anchored just above 400k MMBTU. The 7-day rolling average sits at ~407k MMBTU, a touch stronger than the 2-year mean (~388k). Stability in utilization underscores steady blending demand, though volatility remains tied to key Midwest producers.
The EIA’s latest print (8/28) came in at 1.072M b/d, a –2.7% miss vs. our 1.099M b/d estimate. Our forward call holds near 1.10M b/d into early September, though adjustment factors will remain decisive in weekly balances.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 406,210 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~407,324 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | ~388,000 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 72% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Green Plains Iowa Falls
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Ringneck Energy
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/28
Estimate: 1.099M b/d
Actual: 1.072M b/d
Model Miss: –2.7%
Forward View: Balance remains slightly tight heading into September; adjustment factors remain the swing.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 8/29
Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8000 | Aug/Sep: –0.1100 |
Sep | 1.9100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0400 |
Oct | 1.8700 | Oct/Nov: +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7600 | Nov/Dec: +0.0950 |
Dec | 1.6650 | Dec/Jan: +0.0725 |
Jan | 1.5925 | Jan/Feb: +0.0050 |
Feb | 1.5875 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6075 | Mar/Apr: –0.0200 |
Apr | 1.6275 | Apr/May: –0.0150 |
May | 1.6425 | May/Jun: –0.0100 |
Jun | 1.6525 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.6525 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.7650
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5950
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6400
1H Avg: 1.6175
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1700
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9150 | +0.1150 |
Sep | 2.0250 | +0.1150 |
Oct | 1.9875 | +0.1175 |
Nov | 1.8775 | +0.1175 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.8750 | – |
Aug | 1.8550 | Aug/Sep: –0.0350 |
Sep | 1.8900 | Sep/Oct: +0.0750 |
Oct | 1.8150 | Oct/Nov: +0.1025 |
Nov | 1.7125 | Nov/Dec: +0.0825 |
Dec | 1.6300 | Dec/Jan: +0.0400 |
Jan | 1.5900 | Jan/Feb: –0.0075 |
Feb | 1.5975 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6175 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9150 | –0.0975 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 2.0125 | +0.0325 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.9800 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8700 | +0.0950 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7750 | +0.0725 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.7025 | +0.0050 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6975 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7175 | –0.0200 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7375 | –0.0150 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7525 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7625 | +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6525 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9100 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.1100 |
Sep | 2.0200 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0400 |
Oct | 1.9800 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.8700 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0950 |
Dec | 1.7750 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.9100 |
NWS | 1.9400 |
Aug | 1.8000 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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