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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/6/25
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August 6, 2025
Production Overview
Executive Summary
Production edged higher today to 406,407 MMBTU, holding in the same tight range seen over the last several sessions. Utilization held steady at 69%, with a strong recovery at Green Plains Obion and continued weakness at Horizon Jewell.
Daily Production Change: +3,805 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains – Obion
Largest Decrease in Production: Horizon Ethanol – Jewell
Overall Plant Utilization: 69%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 35
Plants Below Utilization Average: 30
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 42%
Market Insight
Today’s move brings the 7-day average to 410,660 MMBTU, remaining stable following last week’s strong close. As we approach Wednesday’s EIA report, the consistency in daily production builds confidence in our unchanged estimate. There were no new revisions to prior MMBTU prints.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 406,407 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~410,660 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 69% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Green Plains – Obion
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Horizon Ethanol – Jewell
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 8/6
Estimate: 1.083M b/d (issued Monday and unchanged)
Model accuracy last week: ~–1.64% vs actual
Our current supply/demand lean is for a mild draw, supported by firm blending and exports, but watch for adjustment volatility.
Technicals
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