- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/7/25
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August 9, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Production rose to 415,464 MMBTU, the highest print since July 23rd. The increase was driven by strength at Green Plains Madison LLC, while East Kansas Agri-Energy saw the largest drop. Plant utilization firmed up to 71%, and no revisions were made to prior day totals.
Daily Production Change: +4,884 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Green Plains Madison LLC
Largest Decrease in Production: East Kansas Agri-Energy
Overall Plant Utilization: 71%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 37
Plants Below Utilization Average: 29
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 41%
Market Insight
Today’s jump reinforces the midweek strength, pushing output to a 2-week high. If these levels are sustained, they may support regional basis values and influence the forward curve. The recent rebound also comes ahead of next week’s critical blend demand stats.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 415,464 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~406,000 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 71% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Green Plains Madison LLC
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• East Kansas Agri-Energy
EIA Production Estimate
Last Week’s Miss: ~0.99% (we estimated 1.083M vs actual 1.081M)
Market Settlement
All pricing reflects end‑of‑day settlements from August 6th, 2025.
CU Contract Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7575 | Aug/Sep: –0.0025 |
Sep | 1.7600 | Sep/Oct: +0.0425 |
Oct | 1.7175 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 |
Nov | 1.6475 | Nov/Dec: +0.0500 |
Dec | 1.5975 | Dec/Jan: +0.0325 |
Jan | 1.5650 | Jan/Feb: –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.5775 | Feb/Mar: –0.0175 |
Mar | 1.5950 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6175 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6275 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6350 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6325 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6550
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5800
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6275
1H Avg: 1.6050
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.075
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0475
EZ/CU Differential
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8700 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.8675 | +0.1075 |
Oct | 1.8200 | +0.1025 |
Nov | 1.7600 | +0.1125 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.7500 | – |
Aug | 1.7600 | Aug/Sep: +0.0200 |
Sep | 1.7400 | Sep/Oct: +0.0575 |
Oct | 1.6825 | Oct/Nov: +0.0600 |
Nov | 1.6225 | Nov/Dec: +0.0425 |
Dec | 1.5800 | Dec/Jan: +0.0075 |
Jan | 1.5725 | Jan/Feb: –0.0150 |
Feb | 1.5875 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6075 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8600 | –0.0025 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8625 | +0.0350 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8275 | +0.0700 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7575 | +0.0500 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7075 | +0.0325 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6750 | –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6875 | –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7050 | –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7275 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7375 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7450 | +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8675 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0025 |
Sep | 1.8700 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0425 |
Oct | 1.8275 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0700 |
Nov | 1.7575 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0500 |
Dec | 1.7075 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.7550 |
NWS | 1.7850 |
Aug | 1.7575 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
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