- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
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- Ethanol Market Update - 8/8/25
August 10, 2025
Overview
Overview
Executive Summary
Production eased today to 402,215 MMBTU, down from 404,874 MMBTU yesterday. The largest drop came from POET Biorefining – Chancellor, while Marquis Energy – Illinois led gains. Utilization slipped slightly to 69%, with 36 plants above average and 29 below.
Daily Production Change: –2,659 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: Marquis Energy – Illinois
Largest Decrease in Production: POET Biorefining – Chancellor
Overall Plant Utilization: 69%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 36
Plants Below Utilization Average: 29
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Average: 44%
Market Insight
Today’s pullback trims the week’s earlier gains but keeps production above the 7-day rolling average of ~400,900 MMBTU. The market is keeping a close eye on spot strength into mid-August, especially with spreads in CU contracts firming again.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 402,215 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~400,900 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | 386,525 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 69% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• Marquis Energy – Illinois
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Chancellor
Market Settlement
All pricing reflects end‑of‑day settlements from August 6th, 2025.
CU Contract Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.7675 | Aug/Sep: –0.0075 |
Sep | 1.7750 | Sep/Oct: +0.0450 |
Oct | 1.7300 | Oct/Nov: +0.0750 |
Nov | 1.6550 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550 |
Dec | 1.6000 | Dec/Jan: +0.0350 |
Jan | 1.5650 | Jan/Feb: –0.0125 |
Feb | 1.5775 | Feb/Mar: –0.0175 |
Mar | 1.5950 | Mar/Apr: –0.0225 |
Apr | 1.6175 | Apr/May: –0.0100 |
May | 1.6275 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.6350 | Jun/Jul: +0.0025 |
Jul | 1.6325 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.6625
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.5800
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6275
1H Avg: 1.6050
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.0825
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0475
EZ/CU Differential
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8800 | +0.1125 |
Sep | 1.8825 | +0.1075 |
Oct | 1.8200 | +0.0900 |
Nov | 1.7600 | +0.1050 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 1.7500 | – |
Aug | 1.7725 | Aug/Sep: +0.0200 |
Sep | 1.7525 | Sep/Oct: +0.0600 |
Oct | 1.6925 | Oct/Nov: +0.0650 |
Nov | 1.6275 | Nov/Dec: +0.0450 |
Dec | 1.5825 | Dec/Jan: +0.0100 |
Jan | 1.5725 | Jan/Feb: –0.0150 |
Feb | 1.5875 | Feb/Mar: –0.0200 |
Mar | 1.6075 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8700 | –0.0075 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 1.8775 | +0.0375 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 1.8400 | +0.0750 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.7650 | +0.0550 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.7100 | +0.0350 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.6750 | –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.6875 | –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7050 | –0.0225 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7275 | –0.0100 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7375 | –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7450 | +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.8775 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –0.0075 |
Sep | 1.8850 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0450 |
Oct | 1.8400 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.0750 |
Nov | 1.7650 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.0550 |
Dec | 1.7100 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 1.7550 |
NWS | 1.7850 |
Aug | 1.7675 |
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
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