Ethanol Market Update - 9/10/25

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures eased today, with the CU curve maintaining its backwardated structure. September settled at $1.99, while Q4 averaged $1.8025, preserving an ~19¢ premium to Q1.

Production steadied near 399,000 MMBTU, holding utilization around 70%. Plant-level swings were led by Glacial Lakes Energy – Mina (largest gain) and Green Plains – Atkinson (largest decrease).

• Daily Production: ~399,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~401,000 MMBTU

• Utilization: 70%

• Largest Increase: Glacial Lakes Energy – Mina

• Largest Decrease: Green Plains – Atkinson

Market Insight

Backwardation persists across the CU curve, with Oct/Nov at +13.75¢ and Nov/Dec at +11.5¢, underscoring late-year tightness.
Cash markets tracked softer but stayed supported:

• Argo Sept: $1.9625 (Sep/Oct +9.75¢)

• NYH Sept: $2.0945 (~10¢ premium to CU)

• ITT Sept: $2.10, maintaining an ~11¢ premium

Regional R11 prompt posted $2.0025 TWS / $2.0325 NWS, showing firm basis support.

Production Overview

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/10

Ethanol CU Contract

Key Curves:

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8025

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6150

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6600

• 1H Avg: 1.6375

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1875

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: 2.1050 (+0.1150)

• Oct: 2.0550 (+0.1225)

• Nov: 1.9175 (+0.1225)

Argo Market

• Prompt: 1.9750

• Sep: 1.9625 (+0.0975)

• Oct: 1.8650 (+0.1275)

• Nov: 1.7375 (+0.0925)

• Dec: 1.6450 (+0.0350)

NYH Market

• Sep: 2.0945 (+0.0020 vs Oct | +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: 2.0925 (+0.0500 | +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: 2.0425 (+0.1375 | +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: 1.9050 (+0.1150 | +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: 2.1000 (+0.1100 | +0.0575 spread)

• Oct: 2.0425 (+0.1100 | +0.1375 spread)

• Nov: 1.9050 (+0.1100 | +0.1150 spread)

• Dec: 1.7900 (+0.1100 | +0.0700 spread)

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: 2.0025

• NWS: 2.0325

• Sep: 1.9900

Technicals

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