Ethanol Market Update - 9/12/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures posted modest strength into the weekend. The CU September contract settled at $1.965, while the Q4 strip averaged $1.7875, holding a 15¢ premium to Q1.

Production steadied just below 400k MMBTU, with utilization at 70%, reflecting balanced operations across the fleet. The day’s largest gain came from POET – Chancellor, while Marquis Energy – Hennepin led the downside.

• Daily Production: ~399,200 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~398,750 MMBTU

• Utilization: 70%

• Largest Gain: POET Biorefining – Chancellor

• Largest Drop: Marquis Energy – Hennepin

Ethanol CU Contract

• Sep: 1.985 (Sep/Oct +0.0400)

• Oct: 1.945 (Oct/Nov +0.1300)

• Nov: 1.815 (Nov/Dec +0.1225)

• Dec: 1.6925 (Dec/Jan +0.0675)

• Jan: 1.6250 (Jan/Feb +0.0000)

Key Curves

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8175

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6300

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6750

• 1H Avg: 1.6525

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1875

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0450

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: 2.1000 (+0.1150)

• Oct: 2.0675 (+0.1225)

• Nov: 1.9375 (+0.1225)

Argo Market

• Prompt: 1.9810

• Sep: 1.9650 (Sep/Oct +0.0850)

• Oct: 1.8800 (Oct/Nov +0.1250)

• Nov: 1.7550 (Nov/Dec +0.0950)

• Dec: 1.6600 (Dec/Jan +0.0350)

NYH Market

• Sep: 2.0945 (+0.0070 vs Oct | +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: 2.0875 (+0.0325 | +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: 2.0550 (+0.1300 | +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: 1.9250 (+0.1225 | +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: 2.0950 (+0.1100 | Sep/Oct +0.0400)

• Oct: 2.0550 (+0.1100 | Oct/Nov +0.1300)

• Nov: 1.9250 (+0.1100 | Nov/Dec +0.1225)

• Dec: 1.8025 (+0.1100 | Dec/Jan +0.0675)

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: 1.9875

• NWS: 2.0175

• Sep: 1.985

Technicals

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