Ethanol Market Update - 9/15/25

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Author

Nicholas Coolidge
September 15, 2025

September 15, 2025

Overview

Futures

The CU curve steadied to open the week.

  • Sep CU: $2.015 (+3¢ from Friday)

  • Q4 Avg (Oct–Dec): $1.8575

  • Q1 Avg (Jan–Mar): $1.665

  • Q2 Avg (Apr–Jun): $1.7075

  • 1H Avg: $1.6875

Key Spreads:

  • Sep/Oct: +3¢

  • Oct/Nov: +12.5¢

  • Nov/Dec: +13¢

  • Q4/Q1: +19.25¢ (firm, maintaining backwardation)

  • Q1/Q2: –4.25¢

Cash Markets

  • Argo Prompt: $2.011 (Sep $2.00, Oct $1.9225)

  • NYH Sep: $2.0945, holding ~10¢ over CU

  • ITT Sep: $2.125 (+11¢ vs CU)

  • R11: TWS $2.0175 / NWS $2.0475

Backwardation remains in cash markets, though spreads narrowed slightly versus last week.

Production & Utilization

Production remained stable near 400k MMBTU/day, while utilization across monitored plants averaged ~70%, consistent with recent weeks.

Day-on-day plant moves:

  • Largest Gain: Louis Dreyfus – Grand Junction (+3,000 MMBTU)

  • Largest Drop: Green Plains Superior (–385 MMBTU)

7-Day Avg Utilization: 95.8% of 2-year rolling average.

Market Insight

  • Futures backwardation remains entrenched into Q4, with CU spreads highlighting tight nearby balances.

  • Cash markets (Argo, NYH, ITT) continue to show strength relative to CU, particularly for September, where premiums sit around 10–11¢.

  • Basis remains firm, with R11 prints confirming strong regional support.

  • Production is steady, but localized shifts continue to shape balances—particularly in Iowa and Nebraska.

Technicals

Coolidge Report 9-15.pdf227.78 KB • PDF File

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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