Ethanol Market Update - 9/16/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures steadied today with CU holding just above $2.00. September settled at $2.015, while Q4 averaged $1.8625, keeping a ~20¢ premium over Q1.

Production remained stable at ~402,000 MMBTU, with utilization holding near 71%. Daily plant-level shifts were modest, with Marquis Energy – Illinois showing the largest increase and POET Chancellor the largest pullback.

• Daily Production: ~402,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~402,500 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

• Largest Gain: Marquis Energy – Illinois

• Largest Drop: POET Biorefining – Chancellor

Market Insight

Backwardation remains entrenched, but spreads narrowed slightly:

• Sep/Oct: +2.5¢

• Oct/Nov: +12.5¢

• Nov/Dec: +13.5¢

The Q4/Q1 spread at +20.25¢ underscores late-year tightness as blending demand holds steady and exports remain moderately firm.

Cash markets softened fractionally:

• Argo Sep: $2.0025 (+7.5¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sep: $2.019 (~10¢ over CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.125 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 Prompt: TWS $2.00 | NWS $2.03

EIA Production Estimate – Week Ending 9/13

• Forecast: 1.097M b/d

• Last Week’s Actual: 1.077M b/d

• Model Signal: +20k b/d rebound as utilization improved across Midwest plants.

⚠️ Volatility Risk: Midwest capacity swings remain elevated, leaving potential for ±15k b/d variation in the reported figure.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/16

Ethanol CU Contract

Key Curves

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8625

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6600

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.7025

• 1H Avg: 1.6825

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2025

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0425

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: 2.1325 (+0.1175)

• Oct: 2.1150 (+0.1250)

• Nov: 1.9900 (+0.1250)

Argo Market

• Prompt: 2.0110

• Sep: 2.0025 (+0.0750)

• Oct: 1.9275 (+0.1300)

• Nov: 1.7975 (+0.1050)

• Dec: 1.6925 (+0.0375)

NYH Market

• Sep: 2.0190 (–9.85¢ vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: 2.1175 (+0.0175, +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: 2.1000 (+0.1250, +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: 1.9750 (+0.1350, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: 2.1250 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: +0.0250

• Oct: 2.1000 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1250

• Nov: 1.9750 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1350

• Dec: 1.8400 (+0.1100) | Dec/Jan: +0.0750

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: 2.00

• NWS: 2.03

• Sep: 2.015

Technicals

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Market Update

Natural Gas Daily Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC