Ethanol Market Update - 9/17/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures softened slightly on Wednesday, though the CU curve remains steeply backwardated. September settled at $2.020, while Q4 averaged $1.880, keeping a 20.75¢ premium to Q1.

Production is holding firm just above 1.10M b/d, with our model projecting EIA weekly ethanol production at 1.098M b/d (vs. last week’s 1.091M b/d). Utilization is estimated at 71%, consistent with recent operating rates.

Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~402,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 71%
EIA Estimate (9/18 Report): 1.098M b/d

Largest Gain: POET Biorefining – Hanlontown
Largest Drop: Valero – Albion

Market Insight

The CU curve remains in firm backwardation, reflecting ongoing late-year balance tightness:

• Sep/Oct: +1.5¢

• Oct/Nov: +12¢

• Nov/Dec: +13.5¢

The Q4/Q1 spread widened to +20.75¢, its strongest since early September, underlining concerns around supply availability into year-end.

Cash markets tracked futures with modest firmness:

• Argo Sep: $2.0125 (+6.75¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sep: $2.019 (~10¢ over CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.130, maintaining its ~11¢ premium

• R11 Prompt: $2.01 TWS / $2.04 NWS

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/17

Ethanol CU Contract

Key Curves

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.880

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6625

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.7150

• 1H Avg: 1.695

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2075

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0425

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: 2.1375 (+0.1175)

• Oct: 2.1325 (+0.1275)

• Nov: 2.0125 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

• Prompt: 2.011

• Sep: 2.0125 (Sep/Oct: +0.0675)

• Oct: 1.945 (Oct/Nov: +0.1275)

• Nov: 1.8175 (Nov/Dec: +0.1075)

• Dec: 1.7100 (Dec/Jan: +0.0425)

• Jan: 1.6675 (Jan/Feb: –0.0075)

NYH Market

• Sep: 2.019 (Sep/Oct: –0.1035 | +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: 2.1225 (Oct/Nov: +0.0075 | +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: 2.115 (Nov/Dec: +0.120 | +0.110 CU)

• Dec: 1.995 (Dec/Jan: +0.135 | +0.110 CU)

• Jan: 1.860 (Jan/Feb: +0.080 | +0.110 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: 2.130 (+0.110) | Sep/Oct: +0.015

• Oct: 2.115 (+0.110) | Oct/Nov: +0.120

• Nov: 1.995 (+0.110) | Nov/Dec: +0.135

• Dec: 1.860 (+0.110) | Dec/Jan: +0.080

• Jan: 1.780 (+0.110)

R11 Prompt

• TWS: 2.01

• NWS: 2.04

• Sep: 2.020

Technicals

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