Ethanol Market Update - 9/18/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures softened slightly on Wednesday, but the CU curve remains steeply backwardated. September settled at $2.01, while Q4 averaged $1.87, maintaining a 19¢ premium over Q1.

Production remains stable near 1.10M b/d, with our EIA estimate for today’s report at 1.098M b/d, compared with last week’s actual 1.091M b/d. Plant utilization continues near 71%, with output steady across the Midwest.

Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~402,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 71%

Market Insight

The CU forward curve shows persistent late-year tightness:

• Sep/Oct: +2.5¢

• Oct/Nov: +11¢

• Nov/Dec: +12.75¢

• Q4/Q1 spread: +19¢

Cash values tracked futures closely:

• Argo Sep: $1.9975 (+6.75¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sep: $2.019 (~10¢ premium to CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.12 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 prompt: $1.9875 TWS / $2.0175 NWS

Backwardation remains entrenched, reflecting steady blending demand and moderate exports.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/17

Ethanol CU Contract

• Sep: $2.0100 (+0.0250)

• Oct: $1.9850 (+0.1100)

• Nov: $1.8750 (+0.1275)

• Dec: $1.7475 (+0.0750)

• Q4: $1.8700 | Q1: $1.6800 | Q2: $1.7250 | 1H: $1.7025

• Q4/Q1 spread: +0.1900

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: $2.1350 (+0.1175)

• Oct: $2.1125 (+0.1275)

• Nov: $2.0025 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

• Prompt: $1.9990

• Sep: $1.9975 (+0.0675 vs Oct)

• Oct: $1.9300 (+0.1175 vs Nov)

• Nov: $1.8125 (+0.1025 vs Dec)

NYH Market

• Sep: $2.0190 (–0.0935 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: $2.1125 (+0.0175, +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: $2.0950 (+0.1100, +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: $1.9850 (+0.1275, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: $2.1200 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: +0.0250

• Oct: $2.0950 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1100

• Nov: $1.9850 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1275

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: $1.9875

• NWS: $2.0175

• Sep: $2.0100

Technicals

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