Ethanol Market Update - 9/19/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures closed the week softer, with the CU contract settling September at $1.985 and Q4 averaging $1.8325. The Q4/Q1 spread eased to +17.25¢, narrowing slightly from earlier this week but still reflecting late-year tightness.

Production trends remain steady near 400k MMBTU/day, keeping utilization at ~71%. Our EIA estimate for next week’s report holds at 1.095M b/d, modestly above last week’s print of 1.072M b/d, with risks tied to adjustment factors.

• Daily Production: ~400,200 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~401,000 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

• Largest Gain: Red River Biorefinery

• Largest Drop: Big River Resources – West Burlington

Market Insight

Backwardation remained in place but narrowed slightly:

• Sep/Oct: +5.0¢

• Oct/Nov: +9.5¢

• Nov/Dec: +11.5¢

Cash values tracked futures lower:

• Argo Sep: $1.960 (–7.25¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sep: $2.019 (~10¢ premium to CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.095, steady at ~11¢ premium

• R11 Prompt: TWS $1.9875 / NWS $2.0175

Overall, balances remain tight, though spreads suggest easing prompt pressure as production holds steady into late September.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/19

Ethanol CU Contract

Key Curves

• Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8325

• Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6600

• Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.7075

• 1H Avg: 1.6850

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1725

• Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0475

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: 2.1100 (+0.1250)

• Oct: 2.0625 (+0.1275)

• Nov: 1.9675 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

• Prompt: 1.9890

• Sep: 1.9600 (+0.0725)

• Oct: 1.8875 (+0.1050)

• Nov: 1.7825 (+0.0925)

• Dec: 1.6900 (+0.0375)

NYH Market

• Sep: 2.0190 (–6.85¢ vs Oct, +0.1025 vs CU)

• Oct: 2.0875 (+0.0425, +0.1025 vs CU)

• Nov: 2.0450 (+0.0950, +0.1100 vs CU)

• Dec: 1.9500 (+0.1150, +0.1100 vs CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: 2.0950 (+0.1100, +0.0500)

• Oct: 2.0450 (+0.1100, +0.0950)

• Nov: 1.9500 (+0.1100, +0.1150)

• Dec: 1.8350 (+0.1100, +0.0725)

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: 1.9875

• NWS: 2.0175

• Sep: 1.985

📊 EIA Estimate (for 9/19 report): 1.095M b/d
(vs. last week’s 1.072M b/d actual; model bias remains +1–2%).

Technicals

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