- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 9/2/25
In partnership with
Executive Summary
Production began September on a softer note, with output slipping to 396,892 MMBTU, down –3,165 MMBTU from Friday’s close. Utilization eased to 70%, with 37 plants above the average and volatility driven by shifts at a few larger Midwest sites.
Daily Production Change: –3,165 MMBTU
Largest Increase in Production: POET Biorefining – Portland
Largest Decrease in Production: Alto Ingredients – Pekin
Overall Plant Utilization: 70%
Plants Above Utilization Average: 37
Percent of Plants Below 2-Year Avg.: ~43%
Market Insight
After a steadier finish last week, production has retraced toward ~397k MMBTU, now slightly under the 7-day rolling pace. The broader balance remains constructive: blending demand is firm, and export flows continue to provide incremental support.
Our forward EIA estimate for Thursday’s report is 1.094M b/d, slightly higher than the last print (1.072M b/d), though risks around adjustment factors remain in play.
Production Overview
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Total Ethanol Produced | 396,892 MMBTU |
7-Day Rolling Avg. | ~400,500 MMBTU |
2-Year Rolling Avg. | ~388,000 MMBTU |
Utilization Rate | 70% |
Plant-Level Insights
Top Production Gain (Day-over-Day):
• POET Biorefining – Portland
Top Production Loss (Day-over-Day):
• Alto Ingredients – Pekin
EIA Production Estimate – Report Date: 9/4
Estimate: 1.094M b/d
Last Week’s Actual: 1.072M b/d
Model Miss (Last Week): –2.7%
Outlook: September balances remain slightly tight, with Q4 strength relative to Q1 still evident in forward curves.
Ethanol CU Contract – Settles & Spreads
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 2.0000 | Oct/Nov: +0.0475 |
Nov | 1.9525 | Nov/Dec: +0.1275 |
Dec | 1.8250 | Dec/Jan: +0.1125 |
Jan | 1.7125 | Jan/Feb: +0.0800 |
Feb | 1.6325 | Feb/Mar: +0.0125 |
Mar | 1.6200 | Mar/Apr: –0.0175 |
Apr | 1.6375 | Apr/May: –0.0175 |
May | 1.6550 | May/Jun: –0.0125 |
Jun | 1.6675 | Jun/Jul: –0.0075 |
Jul | 1.6750 | Jul/Aug: +0.0000 |
Aug | 1.6750 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8300
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6300
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6650
1H Avg: 1.6475
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2000
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0350
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Oct | 2.1200 | +0.1200 |
Nov | 2.0725 | +0.1200 |
Dec | 1.9450 | +0.1200 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Prompt | 2.0000 | – |
Sep | 1.0000 | Sep/Oct: –0.9750 |
Oct | 1.9750 | Oct/Nov: +0.0850 |
Nov | 1.8900 | Nov/Dec: +0.1225 |
Dec | 1.7675 | Dec/Jan: +0.0950 |
Jan | 1.6725 | Jan/Feb: +0.0450 |
Feb | 1.6275 | Feb/Mar: –0.0025 |
Mar | 1.6300 | Mar/Apr: –0.0175 |
Apr | 1.6475 | – |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 1.9150 | Aug/Sep: –0.1875 | +0.1025 |
Sep | 2.1025 | Sep/Oct: +0.0400 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 2.0625 | Oct/Nov: +0.1275 | +0.1100 |
Nov | 1.9350 | Nov/Dec: +0.1125 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.8225 | Dec/Jan: +0.0800 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.7425 | Jan/Feb: +0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7300 | Feb/Mar: –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7475 | Mar/Apr: –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7650 | Apr/May: –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7775 | May/Jun: –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.7850 | Jun/Jul: +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.6750 | – | – |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Aug | 0.1100 | +0.1100 | Aug/Sep: –2.0000 |
Sep | 2.1100 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0475 |
Oct | 2.0625 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1275 |
Nov | 1.9350 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.1125 |
Dec | 1.8225 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
Region | Settle |
|---|---|
TWS | 2.0350 |
NWS | 2.0650 |
Oct | 2.0000 |
Technicals
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
What Smart Investors Read Before the Bell Rings
In a world of clickbait headlines and empty hot takes, The Daily Upside delivers what really matters. Written by former bankers and veteran journalists, it brings sharp, actionable insights on markets, business, and the economy — the stories that actually move money and shape decisions.
That’s why over 1 million readers, including CFOs, portfolio managers, and executives from Wall Street to Main Street, rely on The Daily Upside to cut through the noise.
No fluff. No filler. Just clarity that helps you stay ahead.
Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply