Ethanol Market Update - 9/22/25

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Author

Nicholas Coolidge
September 22, 2025

In partnership with

September 22, 2025

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures began the week on softer footing, with the CU contract sliding slightly. September settled at $1.9825, while Q4 averaged $1.8225, keeping a +17.25¢ premium over Q1.

Production remains stable near ~400k MMBTU/day, with utilization at ~71%. Our EIA estimate for this week is 1.095M b/d, in line with prior expectations and modestly above last week’s 1.072M b/d print.

  • Daily Production: ~400,000 MMBTU

  • 7-Day Avg: ~401,000 MMBTU

  • Utilization: 71%

  • Largest Gain: Dakota Spirit AgEnergy

  • Largest Drop: Valero – Charles City

Market Insight

Backwardation persisted across the curve, though spreads eased:

  • Sep/Oct: +5.75¢

  • Oct/Nov: +9.5¢

  • Nov/Dec: +11.5¢

Cash tracked lower with futures:

  • Argo Sep: $1.9525 (+7.5¢ vs Oct)

  • NYH Sep: $2.019 (~10¢ premium to CU)

  • ITT Sep: $2.0925 (~11¢ premium)

  • R11 Prompt: TWS $1.9875 / NWS $2.0175

The Q4/Q1 spread at +17.25¢ highlights lingering concern over late-year supply tightness, but steady production suggests balanced near-term conditions.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/22

Ethanol CU Contract

Month

Settle

Spread vs Next

Sep

1.9825

+0.0575

Oct

1.9250

+0.0950

Nov

1.8300

+0.1150

Dec

1.7150

+0.0725

Jan

1.6425

–0.0025

Feb

1.6450

–0.0200

Mar

1.6650

–0.0200

Apr

1.6850

–0.0175

May

1.7025

–0.0100

Jun

1.7125

+0.0000

Jul

1.7125

–

Key Curves

  • Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8225

  • Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6500

  • Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.7000

  • 1H Avg: 1.6750

  • Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1725

  • Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0500

EZ/CU Contract

  • Sep: 2.1050 (+0.1225)

  • Oct: 2.0525 (+0.1275)

  • Nov: 1.9575 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

  • Prompt: 1.9535

  • Sep: 1.9525 (+0.0750)

  • Oct: 1.8775 (+0.1050)

  • Nov: 1.7725 (+0.0925)

  • Dec: 1.6800 (+0.0350)

NYH Market

  • Sep: 2.0190 (–6.6¢ vs Oct, +0.1025 vs CU)

  • Oct: 2.0850 (+0.0500, +0.1025 vs CU)

  • Nov: 2.0350 (+0.0950, +0.1100 vs CU)

  • Dec: 1.9400 (+0.1150, +0.1100 vs CU)

ITT Contract

  • Sep: 2.0925 (+0.1100, +0.0575)

  • Oct: 2.0350 (+0.1100, +0.0950)

  • Nov: 1.9400 (+0.1100, +0.1150)

  • Dec: 1.8250 (+0.1100, +0.0725)

R11 Prompt Market

  • TWS: 1.9875

  • NWS: 2.0175

  • Sep: 1.9825

Technicals

Coolidge Report 9-22.pdf227.10 KB • PDF File

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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