Ethanol Market Update - 9/23/25

Overview

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures eased to start the week, with CU Sep closing at $1.975 and Q4 averaging $1.795, maintaining a 16.25¢ premium to Q1 ($1.6325). The curve remains backwardated into Q4, though prompt cash markets showed stability.

Production is steady near 400k MMBTU/day, holding utilization at 71%, while export demand remains supportive.

• Daily Production: ~400,800 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~401,500 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

• Largest Increase: Siouxland Energy

• Largest Decrease: Valero Albion

Market Insight

• Spreads: Sep/Oct held at +8.5¢, while Oct/Nov posted +8.75¢, keeping late-year backwardation intact.

• Q4/Q1 spread: +16.25¢, a modest narrowing from last week but still signaling constrained nearby balances.

• Cash basis:

  • Argo Sep: $1.9325, with Oct at $1.8475 (+10¢ Oct/Nov).

  • NYH Sep: $2.019, retaining a ~10¢ premium to CU despite weaker spreads.

  • ITT Sep: $2.085, consistent ~11¢ over CU.

• R11: TWS $1.90 / NWS $1.93, showing regional firmness versus board.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/23

Ethanol CU Contract

• Sep $1.975 (+8.5¢ vs Oct)

• Oct $1.89 (+8.75¢ vs Nov)

• Nov $1.8025 (+11¢ vs Dec)

• Dec $1.6925 (+7¢ vs Jan)

• Jan $1.6225

Key Curves

• Q4: $1.795

• Q1: $1.6325

• Q2: $1.6825

• 1H Avg: $1.6575

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1625

• Q1/Q2 Spread: -0.05

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep $2.0975 (+12.25¢)

• Oct $2.0175 (+12.75¢)

• Nov $1.93 (+12.75¢)

Argo Market

• Prompt: $1.908

• Sep: $1.9325 (+8.5¢ Sep/Oct)

• Oct: $1.8475 (+10¢ Oct/Nov)

• Nov: $1.7475 (+9¢ Nov/Dec)

• Dec: $1.6575

NYH Market

• Sep: $2.019 (-6.85¢ Sep/Oct | +10.25¢ CU)

• Oct: $2.0775 (+7.75¢ Oct/Nov | +10.25¢ CU)

• Nov: $2.000 (+8.75¢ Nov/Dec | +11¢ CU)

• Dec: $1.9125 (+11¢ vs Jan | +11¢ CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep $2.085 (+11¢ CU | +8.5¢ Sep/Oct)

• Oct $2.000 (+11¢ CU | +8.75¢ Oct/Nov)

• Nov $1.9125 (+11¢ CU | +11¢ Nov/Dec)

• Dec $1.8025 (+11¢ CU | +7¢ Dec/Jan)

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: $1.90

• NWS: $1.93

• Sep: $1.975

Technicals

Enjoyed this article?

Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.

Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:

Daily Market Update

Natural Gas Daily Update

Fuel and Freight Daily Report

Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC