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- Ethanol Market Update - 9/25/25
September 25, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol futures softened modestly today, with September settling at $1.98 and Q4 averaging $1.8425, keeping a 18.5¢ premium to Q1. The CU curve remains backwardated, though spreads compressed slightly, suggesting some easing in prompt tightness.
On the production side, daily output continues to hover near 399,000 MMBTU, with the 7-day average at ~400,500 MMBTU. Utilization remains steady at 70%, with moderate swings across individual Midwest plants.
Daily Production: ~399,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~400,500 MMBTU
Utilization: 70%
Largest Gain: Big River – Boyceville
Largest Drop: POET – Chancellor
Market Insight
Spreads: Sep/Oct at +3¢, Oct/Nov at +10¢, Nov/Dec at +12.5¢ – still supportive but off recent highs.
Cash values: Argo Sep printed $1.965, while NYH Oct firmed to $2.0825, keeping ~10¢ premiums to CU.
Forward curve: Q4–Q1 spread narrowed slightly to +18.5¢, though late-year tightness remains in play given blending demand and moderate export flows.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/25
Ethanol CU Contract
Sep: 1.9800 (Sep/Oct +0.0300)
Oct: 1.9500 (Oct/Nov +0.1000)
Nov: 1.8500 (Nov/Dec +0.1250)
Dec: 1.7250 (Dec/Jan +0.0775)
Jan: 1.6475 (Jan/Feb –0.0025)
Key Curves
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8425
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6575
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.7125
1H Avg: 1.6850
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.1850
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0550
EZ/CU Contract
Sep: 2.1000 (+0.1200)
Oct: 2.0775 (+0.1275)
Nov: 1.9775 (+0.1275)
Argo Market
Prompt: 1.8980
Sep: 1.9650 (Sep/Oct +0.0650)
Oct: 1.9000 (Oct/Nov +0.1125)
Nov: 1.7875 (Nov/Dec +0.1000)
NYH Market
Sep: 1.9510 (–0.1315 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)
Oct: 2.0825 (+0.0225, +0.1025 CU)
Nov: 2.0600 (+0.1000, +0.1100 CU)
Dec: 1.9600 (+0.1250, +0.1100 CU)
ITT Contract
Sep: 2.0900 (+0.1100, Sep/Oct +0.0300)
Oct: 2.0600 (+0.1100, Oct/Nov +0.1000)
Nov: 1.9600 (+0.1100, Nov/Dec +0.1250)
Dec: 1.8350 (+0.1100, Dec/Jan +0.0775)
R11 Prompt Market
TWS: 1.9300
NWS: 1.9600
Sep: 1.9800
Technicals
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Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
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