Ethanol Market Update - 9/26/25

Liquidity Energy, LLC

Author

Nicholas Coolidge
September 26, 2025

In partnership with

September 26, 2025

Executive Summary

Ethanol futures eased modestly Thursday, with CU September settling at $1.9825 while Q4 averaged $1.8575, holding a nearly 20¢ premium over Q1. The forward curve remains backwardated through year-end.

Production is expected steady at ~1.02M b/d, with our EIA estimate for today’s report at 1.022M b/d, compared with last week’s 1.011M b/d. Plant utilization remains near 71%, keeping output broadly stable across the Midwest.

  • Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU

  • 7-Day Avg: ~402,500 MMBTU

  • Utilization: 71%

Market Insight

The CU forward curve signals late-year tightness:

  • Sep/Oct: +1.25¢

  • Oct/Nov: +10¢

  • Nov/Dec: +13.5¢

  • Q4/Q1 spread: +19.5¢

Cash markets continue to track futures:

  • Argo Sep: $1.975 (+5.5¢ vs Oct)

  • NYH Sep: $1.951 (~10¢ premium to CU, weaker vs Oct)

  • ITT Sep: $2.0925 (+11¢ vs CU)

  • R11 prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS

Backwardation persists, underscoring strong blending economics and seasonal drawdowns.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/26

Ethanol CU Contract

  • Sep: $1.9825 (+0.0125)

  • Oct: $1.9700 (+0.1000)

  • Nov: $1.8700 (+0.1350)

  • Dec: $1.7350 (+0.0800)

  • Q4: $1.8575 | Q1: $1.6625 | Q2: $1.7175 | 1H: $1.6900

  • Q4/Q1 spread: +0.1950

EZ/CU Contract

  • Sep: $2.1025 (+0.1200)

  • Oct: $2.0975 (+0.1275)

  • Nov: $1.9975 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

  • Prompt: $1.9750

  • Sep: $1.9750 (+0.0550 vs Oct)

  • Oct: $1.9200 (+0.1175 vs Nov)

  • Nov: $1.8025 (+0.1075 vs Dec)

NYH Market

  • Sep: $1.9510 (–0.1340 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

  • Oct: $2.0850 (+0.0050, +0.1025 CU)

  • Nov: $2.0800 (+0.1000, +0.1100 CU)

  • Dec: $1.9800 (+0.1350, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

  • Sep: $2.0925 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: +0.0125

  • Oct: $2.0800 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1000

  • Nov: $1.9800 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1350

R11 Prompt Market

  • TWS: $1.9325

  • NWS: $1.9625

  • Sep: $1.9825

Technicals

Coolidge Report 9-26.pdf227.38 KB • PDF File

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Disclaimer

The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.

This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.

Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC

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