Ethanol Market Update - 9/29/25

Overview

Ethanol futures held steady to start the week, with the CU contract closing just under $2.00. September settled at $1.985, while Q4 averaged $1.8575, maintaining a 19.75¢ premium over Q1.

Production remains broadly stable near 1.10M b/d, with our EIA estimate for Wednesday’s report at 1.097M b/d, compared to last week’s actual 1.089M b/d. Plant utilization continues near 71%, with regional plant performance showing only marginal adjustments.

• Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~401,500 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

Market Insight

The CU forward curve continues to reflect backwardation and late-year tightness:

• Sep/Oct: +1.5¢

• Oct/Nov: +10¢

• Nov/Dec: +13.75¢

• Q4/Q1 spread: +19.75¢

Cash markets tracked futures tone closely:

• Argo Sep: $1.9775 (+5.75¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sep: $1.951 (~10¢ premium to CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.095 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS

Overall, backwardation reflects resilient blending demand and modest export activity heading into Q4.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/29

Ethanol CU Contract

• Sep: $1.9850 (+0.0150)

• Oct: $1.9700 (+0.1000)

• Nov: $1.8700 (+0.1375)

• Dec: $1.7325 (+0.0800)

• Q4: $1.8575 | Q1: $1.6600 | Q2: $1.7125 | 1H: $1.6875

• Q4/Q1 spread: +0.1975

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: $2.1050 (+0.1200)

• Oct: $2.0975 (+0.1275)

• Nov: $1.9975 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

• Prompt: $1.9700

• Sep: $1.9775 (+0.0575 vs Oct)

• Oct: $1.9200 (+0.1175 vs Nov)

• Nov: $1.8025 (+0.1100 vs Dec)

NYH Market

• Sep: $1.9510 (–0.1365 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: $2.0875 (+0.0075, +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: $2.0800 (+0.1000, +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: $1.9800 (+0.1375, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: $2.0950 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: +0.0150

• Oct: $2.0800 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1000

• Nov: $1.9800 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1375

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

• Sep: $1.9850

Technicals

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