- Liquidity Energy Ethanol Report
- Posts
- Ethanol Market Update - 9/3/25
September 5, 2025
Overview
Executive Summary
Ethanol futures surged again today, with the CU contract maintaining strong upward momentum into Q4. September settled at $2.0925, while Q4 averaged $1.8925, widening spreads against Q1 and underscoring tighter late-year balances.
Production remains anchored near 1.10M b/d, with our EIA estimate for Thursday’s report steady at 1.100M b/d vs. last week’s 1.072M b/d actual. Utilization continues near 72%, though volatility persists across larger Midwest plants.
Daily Production: ~404,000 MMBTU
7-Day Avg: ~403,000 MMBTU
Utilization: 72%
📈 Market Insight
The CU curve shows deepening backwardation as Q4 spreads widened notably:
Sep/Oct: +5.25¢
Oct/Nov: +15.5¢
Nov/Dec: +13¢
This reflects growing tightness in the prompt, compounded by steady blending demand and moderate export flows. Cash markets followed futures strength: Argo Sep printed $2.0675, while NYH Oct held at $2.195, preserving its ~11¢ premium to CU.
Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/3
Ethanol CU Contract
Month | Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0925 | Sep/Oct: +0.0525 |
Oct | 2.0400 | Oct/Nov: +0.1550 |
Nov | 1.8850 | Nov/Dec: +0.1300 |
Dec | 1.7550 | Dec/Jan: +0.0875 |
Jan | 1.6675 | Jan/Feb: +0.0175 |
Feb | 1.6500 | Feb/Mar: –0.0150 |
Mar | 1.6650 | Mar/Apr: –0.0175 |
Apr | 1.6375 | Apr/May: –0.0125 |
May | 1.6950 | May/Jun: –0.0075 |
Jun | 1.7025 | Jun/Jul: +0.0000 |
Jul | 1.7025 | – |
Key Curves:
Q4 (Oct–Dec): 1.8925
Q1 (Jan–Mar): 1.6300
Q2 (Apr–Jun): 1.6925
1H Avg: 1.6775
Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2325
Q1/Q2 Spread: –0.0325
EZ/CU Contract
Month | EZ Settle | EZ/CU Spread |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.2125 | +0.1200 |
Oct | 2.1650 | +0.1250 |
Nov | 2.0050 | +0.1200 |
Argo Market
Month | Argo Settle | Spread vs Next |
|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0675 | Sep/Oct: +0.1050 |
Oct | 1.9625 | Oct/Nov: +0.1425 |
Nov | 1.8200 | Nov/Dec: +0.1075 |
Dec | 1.7125 | Dec/Jan: +0.0525 |
Jan | 1.6600 | Jan/Feb: +0.0025 |
Feb | 1.6575 | Feb/Mar: –0.0175 |
Mar | 1.6750 | Mar/Apr: –0.0150 |
NYH Market
Month | NYH Settle | Spread vs Next | NYH/CU Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.0945 | Sep/Oct: –0.1005 | +0.1025 |
Oct | 2.1950 | Oct/Nov: +0.0450 | +0.1025 |
Nov | 2.1500 | Nov/Dec: +0.1550 | +0.1100 |
Dec | 1.9950 | Dec/Jan: +0.1300 | +0.1100 |
Jan | 1.8650 | Jan/Feb: +0.0875 | +0.1100 |
Feb | 1.7775 | Feb/Mar: +0.0175 | +0.1100 |
Mar | 1.7600 | Mar/Apr: –0.0150 | +0.1100 |
Apr | 1.7750 | Apr/May: –0.0175 | +0.1100 |
May | 1.7925 | May/Jun: –0.0125 | +0.1100 |
Jun | 1.8050 | Jun/Jul: –0.0075 | +0.1100 |
Jul | 1.8125 | Jul/Aug: +0.1100 | +0.1100 |
ITT Contract
Month | ITT Settle | CU Diff | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Sep | 2.2025 | +0.1100 | Sep/Oct: +0.0525 |
Oct | 2.1500 | +0.1100 | Oct/Nov: +0.1550 |
Nov | 1.9950 | +0.1100 | Nov/Dec: +0.1300 |
Dec | 1.8650 | +0.1100 | Dec/Jan: +0.0875 |
Jan | 1.7775 | +0.1100 | – |
R11 Prompt Market
TWS: 2.09
NWS: 2.12
Sep: 2.0925
Technicals
Enjoyed this article?
Subscribe to never miss an issue. Daily updates provide a comprehensive analysis of both the fundamentals and technical factors driving energy markets.
Click below to view our other newsletters on our website:
Disclaimer
The Coolidge Report is published by Coolidge Shop LLC and is intended for informational purposes only. This report does not constitute trading recommendations, financial advice, or an offer to buy or sell any commodity. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, Coolidge Shop LLC makes no warranties regarding completeness or reliability. Coolidge Shop LLC is not registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) with the CFTC, and this report should not be interpreted as a solicitation to engage in futures or derivatives trading.
This article and its contents are provided by Liquidity Energy, LLC ("The Firm") for informational purposes only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any commodity, futures contract, option contract, or other transaction. Although any statements of fact have been obtained from and are based on sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy, and any such information may be incomplete or condensed.
Commodity trading involves risks, and you should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Liquidity Energy LLC and its affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice, are that of the individual, and not necessarily the opinion of Liquidity Energy LLC
Reply