Ethanol Market Update - 9/30/25

Overview

Executive Summary
Ethanol futures ended September on a mixed note. The CU contract settled at $1.985, while Q4 averaged $1.87, maintaining a 22¢ premium to Q1.

Production remains stable around 1.095M b/d, with our EIA estimate for this week at 1.095M b/d, versus last week’s actual 1.091M b/d. Utilization holds steady at 71%, with daily output near 401,000 MMBTU.

• Daily Production: ~401,000 MMBTU

• 7-Day Avg: ~402,000 MMBTU

• Utilization: 71%

• Largest Gain: POET – Chancellor

• Largest Drop: Green Plains – Wood River

Market Insight

The CU curve remains firmly backwardated, with late-year tightness evident:

• Sep/Oct: –0.5¢

• Oct/Nov: +10.5¢

• Nov/Dec: +15.25¢

• Q4/Q1 spread: +22¢

Cash markets tracked futures closely:

• Argo Sep: $1.9875 (+5¢ vs Oct)

• NYH Sep: $1.951 (~10¢ premium to CU)

• ITT Sep: $2.095 (+11¢ vs CU)

• R11 Prompt: $1.9325 TWS / $1.9625 NWS

Backwardation signals continued steady blending demand and limited export length, keeping pressure on near-term barrels.

Futures & Cash Settlements – 9/30

Ethanol CU Contract

• Sep: $1.985 (–0.0050)

• Oct: $1.990 (+0.1050)

• Nov: $1.885 (+0.1525)

• Dec: $1.7325 (+0.0850)

• Q4: $1.8700 | Q1: $1.6500 | Q2: $1.7025 | 1H: $1.6775

• Q4/Q1 Spread: +0.2200

EZ/CU Contract

• Sep: $2.1050 (+0.1200)

• Oct: $2.1175 (+0.1275)

• Nov: $2.0125 (+0.1275)

Argo Market

• Prompt: $1.9900

• Sep: $1.9875 (+0.0500 vs Oct)

• Oct: $1.9375 (+0.1300 vs Nov)

• Nov: $1.8075 (+0.1175 vs Dec)

NYH Market

• Sep: $1.9510 (–0.1365 vs Oct, +0.1025 CU)

• Oct: $2.0875 (–0.0125, +0.1025 CU)

• Nov: $2.1000 (+0.1050, +0.1100 CU)

• Dec: $1.9950 (+0.1525, +0.1100 CU)

ITT Contract

• Sep: $2.0950 (+0.1100) | Sep/Oct: –0.0050

• Oct: $2.1000 (+0.1100) | Oct/Nov: +0.1050

• Nov: $1.9950 (+0.1100) | Nov/Dec: +0.1525

R11 Prompt Market

• TWS: $1.9325

• NWS: $1.9625

• Sep: $1.9850

Technicals

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